Click here for our 2009 Analysis of the San Diego Chargers - Publish July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – San Diego Chargers 

The Chargers – Effing Nate Kaeding.  That’s the way most Chargers fans would/should describe 2009.  The league’s “best” kicker pulled a choke job for the ages.  He had more missed field goals in the playoff loss to the Jets than LT’s YPC average in that game.  The dichotomy of that statement says even more of Charger fans’ frustration.  LT only average 2 YPC in that playoff loss.  It was a tough end for a team that a lot of people liked to win the Super bowl.

Philip Rivers owners saw him slip from 5^th overall in fantasy points in 2008, to 9^th among QBs – primarily because of the myriad depth at QB these days (Favre, the return of Brady, and Matt Schaub finally stringing together a 16 game season). 

Vincent Jackson established himself as an elite WR following his 2008 breakout season with a 1100+ yard, 9 TD effort.  In his absence, Malcom Floyd flashed signs that the Bolts will be fine if VJ continues his off-season antics, going for 140 yards in week 17 while VJ rested up for the playoffs. 

Antonio Gates used his contract situation to show the Chargers why he needs to be paid; a top 3 finish among TEs, making that 6 straight top 4 TE finishes since being named the starter in San Diego midway thru the 2003 season. 

LT flexed skills for what should be his next profession as a magician,  because there is no other way to explain the Bolts league-low 3.3 YPC average…  w/o magic. 

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

 2010 Offensive Line Analysis

San Diego Chargers 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com     

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Norv Turner has yet another legion of fans calling for his ouster, but he will keep his job for a 4^th straight season.    Yes, he finished 13-3 last season, but what good is that when ya lose in the first round of the playoffs?   The Chargers seem to be everyone’s Super bowl favorite entering into each of the last few seasons, but they often seem to win when they’re supposed to lose, and vice versa.  They lost to a rookie QB at home in the division playoffs last season.   Pretty weak, Norv, pretty weak.     

AIR:  The Chargers looooove to chuck the pigskin downfield.  They led the league with 8.7 YPA and were 3^rd in the league with a team QB rating of 103.1.  Don’t be confused by their 19^th ranking in pass attempts and let that dissuade you at all from considering Rivers.   He doesn’t need to have too many attempts to be fantasy relevant when he averages close to 9 yards per throw.    The unknown of Vincent Jackson seems to be unsettling for most, but I can’t see that affecting Rivers too much.  Gates is his #1 target anyway, and Malcom Floyd has huge upside.

GROUND:  The ground game is NOT dead in San Diego.  The OC Clarence Shelmon was a running backs coach for 15 years before become the coordinator in SD.  He should be given some credit for the success of Tomlinson.   Ryan Mathews is the real deal.  I spent two hours researching him on YouTube and walked (I didn’t actually walk, I sat at my computer for another 2 hours and BS’d on facebook, etc) away impressed.   They passed up a boatload of talent in the draft to select Mathews.   It’s the oline that fantasy ballers need to be worried about – They were dreadful in 2009 blocking the Bolt’s backfield  to a 3.3 YPC average.   How much of that was LT and how much the line remains to be seen, but Sproles’ average also took a big dip between 2008 and 2009.   The Chargers like to use running backs as red zone finishers and Mathews was a TD machine in college scoring 19 in his final season.  We are not crowning the new LT but just pointing out they are similar (WAC School, led NCAA in rushing, etc) and the Chargers seem to see that too.

 QB

Philip Rivers – There are lots of folks talking bust for Rivers because of no more LT and the fact that VJax is doing his best TO impression this off-season (and will be suspended).  I'm not buying it. Let me be the first to explain something to you... Rivers made Vjax, not the other way around, and while it is sad that LT is gone (whaaaaa), he's really been gone for 2+ years talent-wise.  Spores or whatever his name is, is the guy that Rivers has been relying on out of the backfield lately. 

Verdict: Sure, Ryan Matthews is a huge x-factor this season, but at the end of the day, Rivers is a highly accurate signal-caller and still has Gates, Malcom Floyd, Sproles and Legedu Naane.  But because QBs are so deep, I'm bumping Rivers down below Cutler and Favre until I am able to see some pre-season action. VJax has been threatening to sit out until week 10 so he can become unrestricted in 2010.

RB

Ryan Mathews – I'm not gonna pretend I know much about this kid at this point - I've never seen him play, I've only read about him.  Ive seen Spiller, Hardesty, Best, and Ben Tate all run in college, and was blown away by all (especially Best and Spiller!) The only thing I have to offer is that Darren Sproles is not an every down back, and LT used to get a shit-ton of carries in this offensive scheme, so Mathews is getting more guaranteed touches than each of the aforementioned. 

Verdict: What i've read is that Mathews has solid speed with a 4.4 40 yard dash, good size at around 220, and is versatile.  ESPN compared him to a Matt Forte.  Let's hope they were thinking 2008's Forte and not 2009's Matt "Forty".

Darren Sproles – With an upside of 900 total yards and about 6 TDs, he doesn't even make a good handcuff to Ryan Mathews.  He's just too small.  He's not fantasy, unless you are in a 16-20 team league.

WR

Vincent Jackson –Driving while buzzed will keep VJ on the sidelines for the first four games of the season.  His sense of entitlement could keep him on the couch for another 6 weeks beyond that.  The Chargers opted to make VJ a restricted FA by offering the one year tender at 110% of his last year's salary (as part of his rookie contract) and VJ doesn't like it.  I suppose, had he not gone out and blown a 2nd DUI, that I'd be siding with him in this bitter contract dispute.  But the fact remains, he did blow a 2nd DUI, and that calls some serious character issues into question.  He's strung together as many solid seasons as he has DUIs.  I say he should shut his F'in mouth, out-pace his DUI count w/ WR production, and then talk big bucks.

Verdict: You need to avoid this guy until there is clarity around his impending "Holdout" to week 10 (he can still get credit for a full season, thus making him an unrestricted free agent for 2011 if he comes back by week 10).   The Chargers have no intention of trading him.

Malcom Floyd – He's showing up on a lot of sleeper reports, and I suppose, based on our ranking that I'm buying into it.  I wasn't impressed with him numbers once Chambers was dumped mid-way thru 2009, but on the other hand, how valuable is the 3rd target on the Chargers?  And really 4th if you include LT and that little midget Darren Sproles?  If VJ ends up being traded, and the 6'5" Floyd inherits the WR1 honors, he could go bat shit.  He cranked 140 yards in week 17 when VJ rested up for the playoffs.  And he finished 4th in the league w/ 17.2 yards per catch.  For such a big guy, his TD count was way light, but I suppose Phillip Rivers doesn't need to check down to his 3rd option too often in the red-zone with Gates and VJ on staff. 

Verdict: No matter what, VJ will be out for the first 4 games of the season for the DUI, and he is threatening to basically holdout to week 10 if the Chargers don't extend him.  This ranking reflects that happening.  If VJ happens to decide to comeback when he is eligible after week 4, we will be bumping Floyd down.

TE

Antonio Gates –  ***contract year player alert*** With Vincent Jackson out of the picture for at least 4 weeks and possibly much longer, Gates, while still Rivers' #1 target w/ VJ around, should be in line for even more looks. He finished 2009 as the 3rd most productive fantasy TE with 115 all-around targets - 1,100+ yards and 8 TDs on 13 red zone targets. Gates has scored at least 8 TD in six straight seasons. No other TE is coming into 2010 can claim even two 8 TD seasons in a row. The Chargers didn't pass a lot to their WRs and TEs in the red zone in 2009 - only 48 RZ targets to WRs and TEs total. Rivers did a lot of dumping off to LT and Sproles. For perspective, only teams like Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Carolina trailed the Chargers in RZ pass attempts to their WRs/TEs. Even Tennessee chucked it more inside the 20. The point I'm building towards is, w/ LT gone, and VJ gone for much of the season, Rivers is likely to turn to a familiar face when it matters most. He will finish in the top 2.

2010 San Diego Chargers NFL Draft by Round

2010 San Diego Chargers Off-season movement

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