2009 Fantasy Recap – New York Jets

The Jets- came out of nowhere in 2009.  Favre had briefly turned this team around in 2008, but with a rookie QB under center, the Jets were supposed to go back to the cellar in 2009.  Rex Ryan had a little sumpin’ sumpin’ to say about all that.  He took a 15^th ranked defense (2008) and made them league leaders in one off-season with barely any off-season personnel movement.   

From a fantasy perspective, the ground game picked up right where it left off from the previous season behind the blocking of Tony Richardson and that offensively good line led by D’brickshaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold, and Damien Woody.   Thomas Jones had a 2^nd consecutive top 6 finish running the football, but this time around it took him 30 or so more carries (332 carries in 2009 vs. only 290 in 2008).  The Jets treated him harshly from where I’m sitting.  They sucked every ounce of life out of those legs, and let him go in free agency, and then followed by signing LT to a 2 year deal.  Lame.   The ground game also introduced us to Shonn Greene.  He averaged 5.0 YPC and rushed for 540 carries on only 108 attempts (5 TDs), most of which was torward the end of the season.   PPR’rs, be warned, he had not one reception in 14 regular season games.

Mark Sanchez led the Jets to the 2^nd worst passing ranking in the NFL, but also to the final round of the AFC championship game.   The Jets attempted the fewest passes in the league in 2009, and I suspect that isn’t going to change much as long as they are employing a #1 ranked defense.  Rex Ryan is as old-school as they come.   Jerricho Cotchery was the leading Jet pass catcher with a 32^nd fantasy PPG ranking.  Braylon Edwards joined the fray mid-season and didn’t show us too much, either.  

2009 Passing Offense  

2009 Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

New York Jets 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

I will say this for Rex Ryan (I’ll be referring to him as Jabba for the remainder of this piece)… he is one entertaining cat.  HBO’s Hard Knocks is, by far, the most entertaining version of this series since it began.  I could watch Rex Ryan for hours.  I was even taken a bit back at the frequency with which he drops the F-bombs (Tony Dungy called him out this week on that!), but they seem to do wonders for the mood of this team.  His guys want to play for him.  He doesn’t intimidate, he motivates.  He coaches his players into a frenzy, and I mean that in the best way possible.   Hell,  I went looking for cleats (that I don’t own) after I watched episode 1.    

AIR:  For all of the praise I can shovel onto Jabba, I’m avoiding every single one of his offensive passing game guys, save for Dustin Keller as a backup tight end.  I assumed Sanchez would find a comfort zone in Keller, and that didn’t happen in the regular season, but boy did it ever in the post-season (3 TDs and 181 yards in 3 post-season games).   As Sanchez feels the pressure of his sophomore campaign, he may end up remembering who helped him advance this team.  I wouldn’t touch Holmes or Cotchery, and Edwards I may flirt w/ taking if he’s sitting there after 35 or so WRs have been drafted.   

GROUND:  It’s interesting to me how no one can seemingly get excited about drafting Shonn Greene this season.  Let me promise everyone something… Shonn Greene will be given the rock minimally 300 times, he will average minimally 4.5 YPC, and punch at least 11-12 TD.  In the leagues that I play in, those are top 8 numbers for RBs.  So sure, he doesn’t have the ceiling that an AP, MJD, or CJ28 has, but I’m not seeing a lot of difference between him and a Frank Gore – unless you are talking about a PPR – or Michael Turner.   LT is an essential handcuff to Shonn Greene, and should see around 140 carries and a ton of targets out of the backfield in passing down situations.  He will add a dimension to the Jets offense that went missing when Leon Washington went down. 

QB

Mark Sanchez - Sanchez didn't give us much to look forward to last season.  12 TDs and 20 INTs - that's pretty dirty, Sanchez.  The Jets play shut down defense, and all they want out of him is to control the ball and not make mistakes.  Tough to not make mistakes when you are throwing 20 INTs in only 363 attempts.  Sanchez will make a weak QB2 in 2010.  It's sad, too, because he's got some pretty solid weapons in Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Jerricho Cotchery. 

RB

Shonn Greene - For those of you reviewing Greene's 2009 stats, just keep in mind they don't include the post-season (304 yards and 2 TDs in three games).  His 5.0 YPA average is alluring - especially for a bruiser.  Let's face it, it's all about that #1 rush ranked offensive line for the Jets.  They lost Alan Faneca to free agency, so that is a concern (at least for me).  The Jets let one old-timer go (Thomas Jones) and brought in another (LT).  LT should fare better behind the Jets' oline than his 3.3 YPA average in '09 in San Diego. I wish there was more clarity around what Jabba's plan was relative to the load split.  As it stands, I'm uncomfortable drafting Greene any higher than this.  Also, Greene's punishing style of running lends itself to frequent injury, so the risk is there, too.  

LaDainian Tomlinson - LT *could* be an intriguing pick in 2010.  The numbers certainly don't lie - his YPC has been plummeting for 4 seasons (really only the last two, but has decreased in each of the last 4), but running behind that offensive line in NY seems to do wonders for RBs.  And I'm talking ALL RBs (even that little white dude, Danny Woodhead - standing at 5'7" and 195 lbs averaged 4.3 YPC!) Shonn Greene is NOT competing w/ LT for the main gig.  LT's value is as a handcuff to Greene, and behind that line, could probably be effective if given the chance.

WR

Braylon Edwards – He is making waves - the good kind - in off-season workouts in NY - probably priming for his HBO debut - yes, the Hard Knocks cameras will be following Jabba and the Jets this summer.  No one figures to be more amp'd than Braylon Edwards.  He needs to look good in front of that camera, u dig?   As for his fantasy prowess - I remain less than thrilled.  2007 seems like such a distant mirage when he caught 17 scores and over 1,260 yards.  When he arrived in NY game 5 last year, no one was expecting much, and that's exactly what they got.  He cracked the 100 yard mark one time, but other than that, his numbers were quite pedestrian.  Sure, we can blame some of that on Mark Sanchez's errant arm, and that won't get much better, as Mark Sanchez is a sure-fire candidate for ye ol' "sophomore" slumpage.  All he did by taking his team deep into the playoffs is created a pressure cooker environment for himself, and he will undoubtedly buckle due to his inexperience.  The Jets brought in Santonio Holmes (who will be suspended until week 5), and between that acquisition, the fact that Jerricho Cotchery is still the #1 target on this team, there doesn't seem to be much of a shot of fantasy greatness - or goodness - for Braylon. Target him as a very low end starter, but more likely a backup. 

Santonio Holmes – He'll spend the first 4 games on suspension.  And then join his new team that doesn't pass a whole lot.  He'll be lined up in the slot with Cotchery and Edwards split out wide.  Holmes cost the Jets a 2010 5th round pick, so it was a no-brainer trade for them.  Personally, I think the Steelers made a knee jerk/emotional decision and are stupid for doing so.  I get that Holmes is a mental midget, but why not wait and shop him around for a little more value in return?  If this trade was made in my fantasy league, I'd vote veto.  As for Holmes's value in 2010?  It's non-existent.  Look at Edwards' and Cotchery's numbers last year - and Keller's for that matter.  Sanchez will be asked to do just enough for the defense to win games for them again this season.

Jerricho Cotchery - Love this dude's name.  I'll never forget the fantasy draft in my main league in 2004.  It was late, much Beam had been imbibed, there were bongs involved, too, and my buddy Shut tried to pronounce Cotchery's name in the last round of the draft (we have to start rookies in this league, so pretty much every offensive rookie w/ a shot at PT gets drafted).  He got the "Jerricho" part out ok, but when it came time for the last name, he got majorly stuck after the "C" and it was funny to watch a drunk and way baked Shut try and finish 'er off.  "Caahhhrotch, no, Craaah-otch, damn it, ahh fuck it, rookie WR on the Jets".   It was even more of a struggle than that.  We were all on the floor laughing loudly.  At any rate, he's an excellent possession receiver (Cotchery, not my pal, Shut), but has absolutely no potential to be better than he was last year (34th overall among WRs) with Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards around and Mark Sanchez under center.

TE

Dustin Keller - Check out his NFL playoff numbers... 181 yards and 3 TDs in three playoff games.  I'm shocked that Sanchez didn't look his way more often throughout the year - most rookie QBs w/ this type of talent do.  Keller enters his 3rd year on a team that hasn't passed a whole lot lately, but who also just jettisoned one of their strongest olineman (Alan Faneca) and best RBs (Thomas Jones).  I think there is some deep sleeper potential here, if only because of the athlete that Keller is.  He's got sick hands, and solid speed at 4.63 in the 40 yard dash.  I have no empirical data to go off w/ this call, but with a ranking as a fantasy backup, I don't really need any.  Just going on gut with this call.  Yeah, the Jets brought in Braylon last season, and then Santonio Holmes this season - and there are only so many targets to go around, but Sanchez will hopefully remember who his pass-catching bread-winner was in the '09 playoffs.  Plus, Holmes won't even be eligible to play for the first 4 games - giving Keller owners plenty of time to reap the benefits - and then trade him when Holmes comes back!!!

2010 New York Jets NFL Draft by Round

Click Here for the 2010 New York Jet off-season movement report!

Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the New York Jets - Published July 2009