2009 Fantasy Recap – New York Giants

The G-men started off 2009 on a tear with a 5-0 record 4 wins of which came against marginal teams (Redskins, Tampa, KC, and Oakland).  Then things took a turn for the worse, as they lost consecutive games vs. the Saints, Cardinals, Eagles, and Chargers.  Fantasy-wise, after week 5, everyone was chiding themselves for not finally investing in Eli Manning, and not being able to see Steve Smith #`12 from a mile away.  More fodder for the silly 3^rd WR breakout rule.  Some may argue that Steve Smith #12 is a prime example of this theory, but I point to Plaxico Burress being arrested as the real reason.  If Plax didn’t pop a cap in his thigh, Steve Smith #12 doesn’t emerge.  And just as soon as he emerged, he will disappear, once Eli realizes who is WR meal ticket is (Hakeem Nicks).

Nicks accomplished a lot in just a few targets.  Target for target, there was only one (Robert Meachem) more efficient WR fantasy-wise in the league in 2009.  Nicks had only 74 targets and yet finished in 26^th among WRs in fantasy points.  He represents Eli’s largest, strongest, and fastest target, and their relationship will continue to grow in 2010. 
On the ground, the G-men were not up to their usual standards.  Brandon Jacobs nursed injuries all season and his numbers took a hit across the board finishing just inside the top 30 among RBs.  Ahmad Bradshaw, on the other hand, though limited in touches, looked pretty solid with a 4.8 YPC average while punching in  7 TDs on only 163 carries.  He also nursed injuries for much of 2009, suffering stress-fractures to both of his feet. 

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

New York Giants 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Coach Tom Coughlin wants the Giants want to be a running team, and he’s got the combo of RBs to resume that – assuming they are both able to break their fragility.  Eli Manning took a nice step in his career in 2009 with career highs in completion % (62.3%), TDs (27), and Yards per attempt (7.9 vs. his previous high of 6.8).  Could Eli be in for a similar jump in his 6^th to 7^th season like his brother Peyton had (think 49 TDs in 2004)?  Probably not, but with Nicks, Steve Smith, and Manningham, he’s got one of the better trios of WRs that he’s played with.  And the YPA increase as mentioned above means he’s becoming much more comfortable in the pocket.

AIR:  I want me some Nicks, Nicks, and more Nicks on draft day.  He’ll be on my team and I’m willing to spend on that to happen.   His production in limited targets, along with his YPC average is all I need to see.  I suppose it helped that I watched a few Giant games last year; he didn’t look like a rookie out there.  Like even a little.  I like Eli to continue to improve, and Steve Smith #12’s numbers will take a hit in 2010 for sure.  Mario Manningham will not be starting unless Nicks gets injured.

GROUND:  Brandon Jacobs is apparently all healed up from the knee injuries that he blamed for his sub 4.0 YPC average in 2009, and word out of camp is that he’s got his burst back.  If that holds true, and Ahmad Bradshaw can play his role of 3^rd down and a 130-150 or so carries, expect the Giants to run the ball more than the 443 attempts they had in 2009.  Brandon Jacobs makes a decent backup fantasy RB, and Ahmad a RB4 with little upside given his gimpy, stress-fracture-prone feet.  

QB

Eli Manning - I ripped Eli hard before last season (check out his 2009 archive profile on the site). Basically, I had had it w/ Eli's strong starts and weak finishes. However, he had a mini-breakthrough in '09, as he was able to not totally disappear after about week 4. If he wants to win, he no longer has that option. The G-men don't have the rushing attack they did two seasons ago. Brandon Jacobs is constantly injured and can't be handed the ball more than 200 times in a season, and Ahmad Bradshaw seems to get injured from using a Q-tip too hard in the bathroom (stress fractures in both feet, surgery on bone spurs, what next?). Eli also has his new Plaxico in Hakeem Nicks. Maybe not as tall as Cheddar Bob, but what he lacks in height, he makes up for in physicality. What Nicks did last year half injured and in less than 70 targets was remarkable. Now there's a guy to target early in drafts. Steve Smith #12 is playing for a contract, and remains a solid over-the-middle possession guy. Manningham will make a great slot receiver, and Kevin Boss was an unexpected surprise in 2009 catching over 567 yards and 5 TDs. I'll leave you with this... Peyton Manning went from being a great QB in his 5th season, to being a legendary QB in his 6th. By his 6th year, Peyton had increased his completion % by almost 5 points, and was throwing infinitely LESS INTs. His rating hit 99 and he never really looked back from that. Eli just finished up his 6th season and certainly had a breakthrough stat-wise, throwing for over 4000 yards for the 1st time in his career, his highest QB rating, and increasing his completion % over 2 points from the previous high. I'm an Eli bull in 2010. 

RB

Brandon Jacobs - Brandon Jacobs busted hard in 2009 - he delivered fantasy owners 15 TDs and over 1000 yards on only 219 carries in '08, and on more carries delivered 5 TDs and barely over 800 yards. He played most of the season on a mildly sprained knee. He didn't bitch or fuss, had it operated on this past winter, and is said to be back healthy. His Christian Okoye style of running the ball means that his career will be short, and he will constantly be injured, making him more of a headache than anything else...EXCEPT if you can land him as a RB3 which you should be able to this summer on draft day. As long as he's not my meal ticket, he'd make a great bye-week sub, or backup in the event of a major injury to one of my starters. He wears down fast, check this stat: BJ has scored only 2 of his 27 TD over the last three seasons in the fourth quarter. 'Sup w/ dat?

Ahmad Bradshaw - I was told by someone that I trust implicitly that I had Ahmad Bradshaw ranked too low (I think I had him in the 50's recently). My issue with Ahmad is tied to upside (or lack thereof). Jacobs goes down, Bradshaw goes down 22 carries later - or so it seems. Bradshaw posted some impressive per carry averages in '09, and did find pay dirt 7 times. He's also fairly proficient out of the backfield as a receiver. But I just don't see the Giants ever turning to him for 250+ carries. In his three year career, on carries 1-10 AB cranked out 223 carries 1226 yards and a 5.5 average - nice. However on carries 11-20 in a game over his career he is looking at just 30 carries for 97 or a 3.23 YPC. Brandon Jacobs is around and good for at least 10 games. And sophomore Andre Brown, who saw his rookie season come to a close before it started (with a ruptured Achilles heel) is apparently back from the injury, but someone will have to show me an NFL RB that came back from a ruptured Achilles heel injury of this severity. Good luck with that search cuz there aren't any. Danny Ware and Gartrell Johnson are also on the depth chart, and would likely split carries should (when) Brandon go (goes) down. I feel this ranking is overly generous. You won't find this cat on my squad in 2010.

WR

Hakeem Nicks – He started in just 6 games, played in 14, was the 3rd target on Eli's radar (74 targets on the year), and finished with 790+ yards and 6 TDs (26th among WRs). He ranked 8th among WRs for YAC (Yards after catch) at 423 on the season. Oh, one more thing... he was injured for most of 2009 - first recovering from a sprained foot early on, and then a hamstring injury limited his last couple of weeks (once he won the starting gig from Manningham). Expect this guy to shatter the 1000 yard mark and catch possibly 8-10 TDs (or more, it just depends on whether the Giant rushing attack is pathetic in 2010 as it was in 2009 -cuz if it is, Nicks could finish higher). He will be Eli's #1 target in 2010.

Steve Smith – ***contract year player alert*** Fantasy Football is not rocket science, but nothing will change how easily swayed large batches of dumb people can be. Selecting Steve Smith #12 as the 14th WR off of boards this season (where he is going in ADPs on KFFL.com and ESPN.com) should be a punishable crime. *NEWSFLASH* Steve Smith #12 is not that great, unless you are only going off of his first four games in 2009. Check it: First four games in 2009 he caught 34 balls for 411 yards and 4 TD which is a healthy 16.275. However over his last 12 games, he went for 73 catches for 809 yards and 3 TD which is only 8.24 fantasy PPG which is not even in the top 20 according to 2009. WRs in the top 20 should all have a chance to blow the top off of things (Boldin, Nicks, MSW, Jennings, OchoCinco, DeSean Jackson, the real Steve Smith etc). Speaking of Nicks... that is a central reason why Steve Smith probably won’t even match his last year’s output. Smith led all WRs on Giants – by a long shot – in targets with 159. The next closest WR was Manningham with 99, and then Nicks with only 74. That balance WILL tilt a bit more toward Nicks in 2010. Nicks is a bigger, wider, better, and faster target, and Eli knows it. Drafting this Steve Smith at 14th among WRs is such a cop out. I will verbally berate anyone in the leagues I participate in if this Steve Smith is selected before the 25th WR. He’s got no upside. Are you playing fantasy football to be competitive, or to win? With this guy as your WR2, your chances of winning are low.

Mario Manningham - Manninghammy will be given a chance to compete with Hakeem Nicks for the starting spot opposite Steve Smith #12 and he will lose this battle and by a landslide.  Manningham will end up in the slot on 3 WR sets.

TE

Kevin Boss - Finished 17th among TEs in fantasy PPG, and doesn't have much upside. He's a backup.

2010 New York Giants NFL Draft by Round

Click here for the 2010 New York Giants off-season Movement report.

Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the New York Giants - Published July 2009