2009 Fantasy Recap – New England Patriots

Tom Brady took 2009 as an opportunity to let everyone know that the knee injury he suffered in 2008 ‘aint no thaaaang.  A year ago I was skeptical and frankly after the first 5 weeks, I was even moreso. Although week one was pretty sick, when, after 3.75 quarters are quite sluggish play, Brady said “Nope” and busted out two TD scoring drives in the final 2 minutes to beat the Buffalo Bills.   An assist goes to that ‘buckler Leodis  McKelvin for trying to run one back for 6 when his team was up by 5 points when running right out of bounds would have ended the game!

At any rate, Brady finished 7^th on the QB fantasy scoring chart, and gained confidence with every 5 step drop in the pocket he took.  Randy Moss had another pedestrian season… for him.  Yes, 1,264 and 13 TDs is pedestrian for him.   This all and he faced and was shut down by Darrelle Revis twice.  He finished #2 among WRs in a basic format.

If NFL owners/head coaches were ever looking for a reason not to play your starters in week 17 in a game that is meaningless to the playoff picture, they found one in Houston on January 3^rd, 2010.  Wes Welker shredded his game in week 17 in a game that did not matter for the Patriots.   You just watch, if the Patriots are already in the playoffs by week 17 this season, you can bet that Belichick will have all his top guns on the field – just to prove a point – cuz that’s just how he rolls.  He’s a cock. 

Laurence Maroney was the leading ball-carrier for the Pats, but that is almost by default as the average age of the RB2 (Fred Taylor) and RB3 (Sammy Morris) is about 38 yo.  They also both went down to injury.  I am seeing Maroney’s name whispered as a sleeper candidate in 2010, and it’s hard for me to see, in the absence of another few injuries.  Their RB depth chart looks about the same heading into 2010.  Maroney finished 29^th among RBs in fantasy scoring in a basic format.

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

New England Patriots 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Grumpy-Stiltskin  returns for his 11^th season as head coach of the Patriots.  The Patriots don’t have an offensive coordinator since Josh McDaniels left – a subtle way for Belichick to make a point.  He’s a control freak who prefers to call his own offensive plays anyway, and on a team of veterans like the Patriots, he can pull it off.

AIR: The Patriots will be a passing team until such a time that Tom Brady is no longer their QB.  He should be in for an even better 2010 as he (and Moss) both find themselves in contract years.  It remains to be seen if Robert Kraft wants to continue the party or start rebuilding now.  I’d continue the party if I was him – Randy Moss could have another 7 product seasons in him – no joke.  Same with Brady.   Beyond those two man-beasts, Welker is trying to come back from an ACL tear he suffered on January 3^rd, and so far thru camp, is defying all odds.  I am staying away from him on draft night unless I can land him after about 30+ WRs are gone – which means I’m not gonna land him.  I’d rather have his backup, Julian Edelman. 

GROUND:  The Patriots have employed exactly two fantasy relevant RBs in 10 seasons – Corey Dillon (2004) and Antwain Smith (2001).  For those of you thinking Maroney can bust out in 2010, just stay disciplined and don’t jump the gun.  I wouldn’t mind ending up with Maroney as a RB 3 or 4, but I’d shudder having to depend on him to start every week.  The depth chart thins out a lot after him, as Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris are in their late 30’s and Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a fairly vanilla runner.  Each of those names are a high probability to come together to once again snare about 60% of the total carry count from Maroney’s grip.  

QB

Tom Brady - If you are passing up Tom Brady at this point, you cwazy, man, you cwazy.  Yes, it will be interesting to see what Brady can do without a Welker to depend on for 110+ completions.  But wasn't it always interesting to see what Brady would do with the likes of Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens, David Patten, and all of the other coal he made diamonds with?  Welker being hobbled really doesn't matter as long as Randy Moss is around. Moss made guys like Todd Bouman (for two games), Daunte Culpepper, Randall Cunningham, and even Kerry Collins for a season - look like fantasy superheroes.  Tom was timid for much of last season, and still finished in the top 7.  Brady was a perennial top 7-8 fantasy QB before Welker or Moss came to town, and with the knee injury nearly two years removed, there's upside w/ this ranking. 

RB

Laurence Maroney - ***Contract year player alert*** I remember watching that New England romp of the Titans, and being lucky enough to have Laurence Maroney fall to me in the waiver wire process (we utilize one of those communistic best team gets last crack at the good pickups waiver wire processes).  At any rate, Maroney was huge for me last year - scoring in almost every regular season game I started him in (I drafted Slaton as my RB2 last season - oops).  He had four untimely fumbles (show me a timely fumble), and Belichick lost confidence in him toward the end of the season.  Going to war w/ a Patriots RB (save for a couple years w/ Corey Dillon), is usually risky business, however where we are ranking Maroney, he can and will give you great RB3 returns, with upside.  Here is an encouraging stat on Maroney, in 18 career games of 14+ carries, he has amassed 1744 total yards 15 TD for a 14.68 fantasy PPG average.  Those are top 10 RB numbers.  Here's another - in the 6 games he had 15 carries last season he notched 571 total yards and 7 TD for an average of 16.51 fantasy PPG. In his other 9 games he registered only 285 total yards and two TD for a 4.5 fantasy PPG average.  Given the lack of depth in New England, Maroney makes a nice sleeper in 2010.

WR

Randy Moss – ***contract year player alert*** Moss is kind of a freak.  There are many that think he's finally slowing down.  Many think he couldn't possibly reproduce the craziness of 2007 (23 TDs and almost 1,500 yards).  33 is getting up there in age.  When I hear people shutter at Moss's age, I simply point to another supa-freak athlete that plays this position - TO - who, in his 33rd year of life, notched his 2nd best fantasy performance of his career with 1,355 yards and 15 TDs (on Dallas).  As long as Tom Brady is throwing him the ball, he has is a consideration as the top fantasy WR. While Moss might not have the reception or yardage ceiling that 'Dre does, he certainly has the TD ceiling.  Moss has 9 seasons of double digit TD while 'Dre has zero double digits TD seasons. In Moss' 3 seasons with NE, he has 47 TD including 11 from 2nd stringer Matt Cassel. Johnson only has 42 TD in his entire career.  Moss has been a TD machine outside of his two years in Oakland. He keeps in self in as good of shape as TO, and w/o question, is more talented than TO.  He may be a bit more of a loafer, but league-leading potential is there.  

Wes Welker – He's being drafted 15th among WRs according to two different ADP calculators.  WTF? 15th?  Stick a fork in Welker for 2010. His game is built purely on speed and quickness, and w/o it, he’s not a professional football player.  These ADPs were updated as of August 12th!  People… he tore his ACL in week 16 of 2009.   But, since he finished 13th among WRs in 2009, naturally, he’s got to come close to that again, right?  No, wrong.  The severity of his ACL tear, doctors say, takes well over a year to fully recover from – more like 18-24 months.  Not 9 months.  He doesn’t have a chance to be ready by week one, and really, doesn’t have much of a chance to be his old self by week 16 (if ever).   And yer gonna draft him just a few spots lower than where he finished last season?  Be my guest, and lemme get your email so I can invite you to one of my leagues.  Part of being a good fantasy owner is roping dumbasses into your league to make it easier to win.

Julian Edelman - Welker is going to have a difficult time regaining his pre-acl injury form in 2010.  His game is built purely on speed and quickness, and w/o it, he’s not a professional football player.  I know, I know, harsh words.  I have much love for Welker, but the injury is what it is.  Julian Edelman started for Welker AS A ROOKIE in 4 games (week 2, 3, 17, and the playoff loss vs Baltimore) and ripped off 265 and 2 TDs for a 9.65 fantasy PPG average.  Veteran Hines Ward finished 16th among WRs in 2009 with a 9.5 fantasy PPG average.

2010 New England Patriots NFL Draft By Round

Click here for the 2010 New England Patriots off-season movement report!

Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the New England Patriots - Published July 2009