Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Miami Dolphins - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins-  I bet you didn’t know that Ricky Williams finished 7^th among RBs in overall fantasy scoring.   Adjusted for PPG he finished 10^th, one spot behind Ronnie Brown.   Put another way, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown were both RB1s for 9 weeks in 2009.  Quick, can you find even one fantasy website ranking either of these guys in the top 10?  Or the top 15? 

Chad Henne took over in week 3 at QB after Chad Pennington went down with yet another shoulder injury.  He had a lackluster season in fantasy terms, but was working with next to nothing at WR.  He made mistakes that you expect out of QB with little NFL game experience, but overall, there were some moments of promise; top of which was his week 13 win vs. the Patriots where he threw 335 yards and two TDs.  Another positive sign was his handling of the week 5 game vs. the vaunted NY Jets’ pass defense – his line was 241 yards and 2 TDs… and no INTs.  Nice.  He struggled on the road (4 TDs and 8 picks) while seemed in his place in Miami (8 TDs vs. 6 INTs). 

There are no stories to tell at WR, unfortunately.  Davone Bess rose to the top of this heap with his 758 yards and 2 TDs.  I’ve seen his name on sleeper reports, and that one will need to be explained to me in more detail.  He’s short and does not have a top gear.  Yes, he’s quick and gets in and out of cuts w/ precision, and he has good mitts, but Tom Brady isn’t throwing him the ball, unfortunately.   Anthony Fasano totally disappeared with around 339 yards and only 2 TDs (he did miss two games).

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Miami Dolphins 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Head coach Tony Sparano and OC Dan Henning return for their 3^rd seasons in Miami.  “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” should be the Dolphins motto on offense going into 2010.  They have been over-achieving with this ballclub since arriving with Bill Parcells two seasons ago.   The problems this team has are largely on defense as they let up 39 TDs and finished 25^th in points given up.  On offense, they are moving the ball and scoring points (finished 15^th in points scored as a team) thanks to the installation of the “wildcat” offense.   And with the addition of Brandon Marshall and the commitment to their young riser, Chad Henne, they appear to be set on incorporating a legitimate aerial assault to keep defense permanently on their heels.

AIR:  Chad Henne found his way onto my sleeper list back in June, but I’m singing a different tune 2+ weeks into training camp.  He’s not looked really sharp and is making rookie mistakes.  We can really call this season his sophomore slump.  I would not feel comfortable with Henne as anything more than a low-end backup QB at this point, even with the great Brandon Marshall at his side.   And on that note, I’m also bumping Marshall down ever-so slightly as a result.  I still think Marshall can produce low WR1 or high WR2 ROI, but nothing more, and there is some definite risk.  Marshall is a ridonkulous athlete, but if Henne can’t target him 140 times and connect on at least 90 of those, Marshall’s numbers will dip.

GROUND:  After finishing 9^th and 10^th respectively in fantasy PPG among RBs, Ricky and Ronnie are getting no love in drafts.   Ronnie Brown can’t be drafted high because he won’t be around for you when it matters (fantasy playoffs- read his profile below for more on that).  And if you draft Ronnie Brown, you will have to burn another pick in the next round on Ricky Williams, as there will be some folks in your draft w/ an eye towards his 2009 finish.  If the time was right, I wouldn’t mind having both of these cats as my backup RBs, but they are being drafted before that in most ADPs, so sadly, I will have to accept that neither will be on my fantasy team.  The ‘Fins can run, though, no one can question that.    

QB

Chad Henne - The addition of Brandon Marshall is all you really need to know to get fired up about Henne's chances this season.  Miami attempted 545 passes (14th in the NFL), and Henne was getting his first legitimate reps in the NFL.  With an elite WR, and more experience (and one aging RB and another injury prone RB), we think that Henne could be even for more and better pass attempts.  He finished 22nd overall and only started 13 games.  The 'fins play balanced football, and execute the wildcat better than any team in the league.  Henne will make a decent backup fantasy QB in 2010. 

RB

Ronnie Brown - Ronnie Brown is being selected 20th among RBs on ADPs.  If Addai is a bad pick as the 22nd  RB off of mock boards, then Brown at 20 is flat out an assault on my senses.  Are there really that many morons thinking that this is the year that he doesn’t get injured?  The guy has finished higher than 20th once in his career (17th among RBs in 2008), and is mired in a RBBC for one more year w/ Ricky Williams.  But wait, that’s actually a positive thing (RBBC), though, because Ronnie Brown has never had a full load of carries in a season in his career (ie since high school).  He split carries w/ (or played 2nd string to) Pontiac Williams at Auburn for 4 years, and never saw more than 175 carries.  In 2006, he toted the ball 241 times, and you would have thought the 8th wonder of the world just went down in Miami. Here is the stat that has me so annoyed - think DECEMBER - in his 9 December games in his career (that's right, only 9), he has 116 carries for 548 yards for a 4.72 YPC and 0 rushing TD, to go along with 20 receptions for 129 yards and 1 TD.  8.18 fantasy PPG average. Yuck. When are the fantasy playoffs?  Oh, das right, December.  How can you not be taking chances on some of these younger guys or up and comers, vs. a guy like Ronnie Brown?  Just a garbage pick at 20th among RBs. I mean I have Laurence Maroney ranked ahead of Brown. 

Ricky Williams - ***Contract Year Alert*** Ricky is in a contract year, but no one knows whether he still plans on playing.  I'm curious to know his financial situation.  On the one hand, if 2010 was any indication, this guy still has skills for his bills, but on the other, it almost seems like he's been dying for the day that he can retire and return to torching bongs with Master P and the rest of whoever his crew is.  And oddly, it was Master P that Ricky and the rest of us have to thank to wonder about Ricky's financial situation - man that was a dumb contract.  But I digress - Ricky was lights out in 2009 relatively speaking.  He had his 2nd best YPC of his career at 4.7 per, but he might have run out of steam toward the end of year (weeks 16 and 17 weren't pretty, and they were must-win situations for the 'fins - so it's a concern.  He carried the ball 241 times, and that would seem to be the max you should expect out of him in 2010, thus making him a decent RB2 candidate.

WR

Brandon Marshall – This guy has crazy skills but there are two things that could hold him back in 2010. 1) Chad Henne - he's inexperienced and somewhat inaccurate (although you don't need to be all that accurate to get Marshall the rock!). 2) is the Miami offensive scheme. The 'Fins have produced zero WRs with more than 3 TDs over the last few years and haven't featured a 1,000 yard WR since Chris Chambers in 2005. Ok, fine, Marty Booker was their WR1 in 2006-2007 and Ted Ginn in 2008 and 2009 and neither are WR1 material. Marshall should eclipse 3 TDs by week 6, and 1,000 yards by week 11, however there is risk in the unknown. He overpowers all def backs, and even linebackers find him challenging to move. With another 100+ catch season, Brandon Marshall will join Marvin Harrison as the only WRs to record 4 straight 100 catch seasons in NFL history (Welker could do it, too, in 2010!). With such balance on offense (wildcat, ricky and ronnie, etc), Marshall should have a stellar season as a low-end WR1.

Davone Bess – Zero upside on this guy.  Short, slow, but he does have some sticky mitts.  He's a great slot WR, but won't do anything for your fantasy squad.  I've seen him on some sleeper reports, and it made me chuckle.  With Marshall in town, Bess has no shot at producing fantasy starter numbers.  Bess was targeted 2 times in the red zone last season.  Two.

TE

Anthony Fasano - Not shockingly, his TD count came back down after 2008.  Tuna loves this guy, and there is an outside shot that Henne could lean on him a bit as he struggles in his first full year under center.  Also, as Brandon Marshall is double teamed, Fasano could benefit.  Decent backup.

2010 Miami Dolphins NFL Draft by Round

Click Here for the 2010 Miami Dolphins off-season movement report!