Click here for out 2009 Analysis on the Kansas City Chiefs - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs –   Anyone ever see the film Gigli?  You know the one that starred Bennifer Lopez?  Highly hyped, but let’s be nice and just say that the acting was sub-par.   And if you haven’t seen it, please don’t, but when thinking of the Chiefs’ first season under Todd Haley/Scott Pioli, that is the first thing that came to mind.  

Overpaying for Matt Cassel was the first order of business.  $63 million dollars…  I was seeing red then, and now am having flashbacks.  How does an NFL executive be fooled by a guy who got to throw to Wes Welker and Randy Moss in a pass-heavy offense?  Cassel proceeded to reward management’s faith with an INT for every TD he threw (16’s). Then we saw Dwayne Bowe enter Haley’s doghouse never to emerge again.  And then there was his 4-game suspension in '09.   4-12 and last in the AFC West was the result.   A team led by Jamarcus Russell tripped out on the purple drank even managed better.

Unlike Gigli, there were actually a couple of good moments to the season.   Once Larry Johnson wore out his welcome in KC, Jamal Charles showed fantasy nation what he can do with some full time carries.   968 rush yards to go along w/ 8 total TDs (7 rush 1 receiving) in the final 8 games!   

2009 Chief's Passing Stats

2009 Chiefs Rushing Stats

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Given the 2009 “rotten tomato” aerial attack in KC, and their newfound RB gem, you may assume that Haley’s philosophy for KC is to just stick Jamaal Charles’ right up everyone’s @$$  - not so fast.  He and Pioli made two interesting moves that have raised questions.  First, just 5 days after the regular season ended, they brought in Charlie Weis (most likely on a flatbed) to be the new OC.  Weis just spent the last year at Notre Dame trying to break the record for passing yards in the season.  Haley and Weis coached together under Parcells in New York (Jets).   The second move was to snap up ex-Jet Thomas Jones for two years and $5 million. 

AIR: 

Weis' recent love affair with the passing game is well documented in his stint at Notre Dame (he made Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen into college fantasy football juggernauts, and Golden Tate is now an Irish legend).  Coach Haley was a WR coach for 7 years before being named OC for ‘Zona, and we know what he accomplished their during his 2 year stint (Warner was a top 5 FF QB in 2007 and top 10 in 2008).  The Chiefs aren’t going to just stop passing the ball because they sucked at it in 2009.  Enter Weis.  They also invested a high round draft pick in Dexter Mccluster.  Finally, they signed Jerhemme Urban who was not re-signed by Arizona – obvious connection there.   That leaves Matt Cassel with the following:  Dwayne Bowe and his big “importing” mouth, Chris Chambers, Mccluster, and Urban, to go alongside a new OC in Weis.   We smell improvements, but we are still very lukewarm on Cassel.  

IMPORTANT FANTASY NOTE: In the NFL, Weis’ offense never produced fantasy studs.  Fantasy-wise in NE, Brady never cracked the top 8, no receivers cracked top 10, and the best a TE could do was 9^th.  So before you drink the Weis Kool-aid, remember you are dealing with Matt Cassel.  Bowe would be the one to ascend to fantasy greatness, if anyone via their passing game.

GROUND:

Todd Haley’s three years of running offenses don’t quite tell us exactly how he will handle the Thomas Jones/Jamal Charles situation.   In 2007, he handed an aging Edgerrin James the ball 324 times (thus basically ending his career).    In 2008, with James old and hobbled, rookie Tim Hightower took about half the carries away from James.   And then last year, LJ and Jamal did about a 70-30 split (in LJ's favor) before LJ was sent packing.  Once gone, Jamal took over. 

Thomas Jones was not signed for $5 million to ride pines.  We know that much.  Just how much he will cut into Charles carries is what leaves us all wondering where we should take both.  Expect Charles to win the majority of snaps, but it won’t stop T-Jones form being a red zone snake.  He had 14 of the Jets 23 TDs - all of which were in red zone -in 2009, in a year which the Jets used and abused TJ to the tune of 331 carries.  I can’t the Chiefs using him any more than about 150 or so times, leaving Charles to manage the rest. 

QB

Matt Cassel – So Cassel's 1st season was a disaster - as anyone w/ half a clue anticipated before '09 started.  New GM, new head coach, new scheme, new QB - expectations should have been low.  I'm here to tell you to keep 'em low - at least where Cassel is concerned.  Here's the problem - he's not that good.  Wow, is Pioli a pinhead for committing all those dollars to this kid.  Has he not read the Randy Effect chart created by FFArmory.com? See either Randy's or Cassel's player profile (under the 2009 archives), but basically what it outlines is that any QB can be fantasy relevant with Randy Moss split out wide - ANY one. 

Verdict: So while we think Bowe can rebound, we're not thinking Cassel can.  With Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones, all the Chiefs really need to think about is running the football.

RB

Jamaal Charles - Here's what we know about Jamal Charles... he's faster than pretty much anyone but CJ28 with the ball in his hands, he's got a career 5.6 YPA, and he shouldered  fantasy teams to and thru the fantasy playoff run in 2009.  Nice.  Thomas Jones was brought in, and it's got many fantasy buffs concerned that he won't see enough touches to warrant RB1 status.  Horse-puckey.  Thomas Jones is 32, and has seen more carries than ANY RB in the league since 2006.  Haley confirmed that TJ was brought in more as insurance, and yes, to carry some of the load in 2010.  KC attempted 438 rushes in '09, and let's assume TJ snares about 130-150 of those.  That's still plenty for Charles to produce - not to mention all of the damage he's capable of catching the ball out of the backfield.  Durability remains a slight concern as Charles had off-season shoulder surgery, and that's really the only thing preventing us from putting him in our top 7.

Verdict: Make him a low end RB1 - and there is plenty of upside to go along w/ this ranking.  He's electric with the ball.

Thomas Jones - He leads all RBs in rush attempts over the last 3 seasons (and most in age).  Father time has to catch up with TJ at some point.  I sung this same tune at this time last year, and I was wrong... way wrong.  To the tune of finishing 3^rd among RBs in 2009.  Now before you leave the site, please know that I had Ray and Sidney Rice, Cedric Benson, and DeSean Jackson in my sleeper bucket and more importantly, I called both Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams busting from their 2008 numbers, so roll that up and smoke it :-) I'll stop wasting time starting....NOW - Coach Todd Haley wisely pounced on Jones to come in and be the power component to Jamal Charles brand of bottled lightning football.  I'm expecting T Jones to be preserved vs. this turning into a true split.  Charles is a game changer.  Sure, Charles did most of his damage vs. three crap rush defenses (Denver ranked 26th, Oakland ranked 29th, and Cleveland ranked 28th), but he also ripped Cinci for 100+ and a score, and had nice numbers and a TD in limited touches vs. San Diego.  Plus, 40 catches in what little time he was the starter. 

Verdict: There is no way to tell you what TJ's numbers will be this season, except to say, he is probably the #1 handcuff (behind McGahee) heading into 2010.

WR

Dwayne Bowe - KC was all-around terrible in 2009, and Bowe was no different - at least as far as his attitude went.  He started the season off on the wrong foot w/ new head coach Todd Haley by showing up to camp overweight.  He never seemed to recover from there, as next came his 4 game suspension for using a performance enhancing substance that is banned in the NFL, and in his limited time on the field, he managed to lead the league in dropped passes - a season for the (dark) ages.  There is cause for optimism, though, as Charlie Weis (of Notre Dame fame) is bringing his high-octane offensive prowess to the heartland, and I'm guessing that Bowe is the largest benefactor.  He has been working hard in the off-season (ESPN article where he blabbed about veteran NFL ballers shipping the ladies to away game hotels withstanding), and should be targeted early and often as Haley/Weis look to leverage what little talent they have to achieve some balance on offense.

Verdict: We're still not sold on Cassel, but Bowe did finish 30th in fantasy pts average per game, so if he can pull his head out of his anus, there is potential for a nice rebound.

Chris Chambers - I've been saying to stick a fork in this guy for about 5 years now.  All it took was the Chargers to cut him to wake up, and realize that he won't be lacing up in a couple of years.  He had such potential to be one of the greats - all wasted, because he's a lazy douche.  Look at the numbers he put up in KC last year - 600+ yards and 4 TDs in just 9 games on a 16.9 YPC average (2nd highest of his career).  Will it last?  Charlie Weiss of Notre Dame offense fame (he made Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen look like quarterback gods) may have something to say about it. 

Verdict: While I'm not so bold as to utter the S word in the context of a Chris Chambers profile, I might add that you shouldn't totally forget him about on draft day if the value is there.  He should be targeted as a backup WR w/ upside.

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 NFL Draft  by round - Kansas City Chiefs

2010 Kansas City Chiefs: Off-season Movement