Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Indianapolis Colts - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Indianapolis Colts

The Colts  -  Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell (guilt by association) got exactly what they deserved in February of 2010 – a big fat Super Bowl L-bow.  Sorry Colt fans, this is a fantasy football website, and while I have much love for the likes of Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, and up and comer Pierre Garcon, nothing can erase the nightmare of owning any one of those guys if you were their owner and found yourself in the fantasy playoffs last season. 

Will they play?  Won’t they play?  Manning being interviewed by Andrea Kramer on ESPN saying he will be out there as long as the game is close – boo yah – the shot heard ‘round the world.  Week 16 and he’s on the bench by the end of the first half – in a close game, no less.  Good.  I’m glad you lost. 

No one has to tell me how much blood, sweat, and tears it takes to not only grind out a 16 game season, but then go to battle in the playoffs as a professional football player, I get it.  There is nothing like the NFL playoffs – nothing.  Take your baseball, hockey, and basketball playoffs, role them up in a nice tight philly-style blunt, and light it.  The NFL playoffs are brutal.  The hits are harder – every one of ‘em – just ask Brett Favre.   What I’m trying to verbally regurgitate here, though, is that to come all that way, and then lose in the Super Bowl typically leaves a one year hangover – at least.   Take a look at Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin’s fantasy stats from 2008 to 2009.  Or the 2007 New England Patriots,  or the 2006 Chicago Bears, or the 2005 Seattle Seahawks.   Here's a detailed chart around it all - it’s not pretty.  (We are gonna be writing up an in-depth OP ed  piece shortly on this where we will break down the exact stats, and I promise to come back to this piece and link it up  - the idea just came to me!).

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Indianapolis Colts 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Indianapolis Colts Offensive Philosophy

Jim Caldwell returns as head coach, and Clyde Christenson as OC in an offense that’s basically run by Peyton Manning.   Go on ahead and put Indy down for at least 550 passing attempts, and probably much more than that.  Joseph Addai does the end zone like Jack Bauer does unrealistic terrorist plot foiling, both are quite hard to believe.   In between the 20’s, though, he isn’t quite as effective at 3.8 YPC with one of the NFL’s best QBs and olines.   Addai’s YPC average has been on the slide since he entered the league – but maybe a contract year is enough to motivate him a bit?  His is up at the end of 2010, and it is unknown whether the Colts plan to re-sign him or not.  Addai is a modest guy, and is a favorite of Coach Caldwell, but Polian won’t spend too much on him when he knows he can plug just about any RB into this system and make it work.   

AIR:  Manning has two new weapons in Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, and will also be getting Anthony Gonzalez back from injury.  Pierre Garcon enters camp as the starter opposite Reggie Wayne, and Collie will start (and finish) the year in the slot.  I expect Garcon to net a few more targets (had 92 in 2009) and he should produce some decent WR3 numbers for teams.   His upside is limited, though, given that he will be 3^rd in the pecking order behind Wayne and Clark.   Another fear is that Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez may split some reps – WRBC-  uh oh.  I’m kidding, there will be no Wide Receiver By Committee in Indy.  Garcon will be fine. 

GROUND:  As long as Peyton Manning is the QB, whoever is getting the bulk of short yardage/goal line carries in this backfield is fantasy-worthy.   Right now, that appears to be Addai, but Donald Brown has been making strides in OTAs and training camp – according to Jim Caldwell.   The Colts finished 2^nd to last in attempts last season and dead last in yards, and Peyton Manning was barely sacked, so I’m not ready to assume that the Colts will dramatically increase their rush attempt count.   Addai’s value is as a low-end RB2 and Donald Brown is a worthy handcuff or high upside target late in drafts.

QB

Peyton Manning - He's finished outside the top 5 QBs once in the last 10 seasons (2008 - he finished 6th), and there's only a couple reasons we have Brees ranked ahead of him (see above). I'm not worried about Manning's age - he played the best football of his career in 2009. He's threading even thinner needles these days - it's really just a pleasure to watch. It did, however, take him 60+ more pass attempts to achieve 15 less fantasy points than a Brees. I'll be shocked if the Colts attempt another 600+ passes in 2010. They both are stacked with receiving talent. It's just so close, and wouldn't bat an eye if I ended up w/ Manning (again) this season. If I do, I will plan for a better backup, either thru trade, or thru the draft - as he was basically benched for week 16, and I lost my main league's super bowl because of it.

RBs

Joseph Addai - ***Contract Year Alert*** Addai was a touchdown make'a in 2009 (10 rush and 3 receiving), and probably will be again this season as he's got one of the better noses for the end zone in the NFL. Beyond being a solid goal-line guy, Addai's game is similar to Ryan Grant's in the bore-fest department.  He just doesn't have much spark to his game. After a decently strong start to his career, he has seen his YPA dip ever since. 3.5 YPA in 2008 and a still sub-par 3.8 YPA in 2009. With Peyton Manning and behind that offensive line, these numbers are unacceptable.  Yet he still finished 10th among RBs in a basic format last season.  The Colts are wise to let his contract run out and plug anyone else (Donald Brown) with a heartbeat and an NFL pedigree into this backfield.  For now, though, Addai is the lucky man, and will continue to receive the majority of the snaps.  Before you get too excited, "majority of the snaps" might not mean a lot, as Donald Brown will cut more into this pie as the Colts look to develop his skills for when they let Addai leave via free-agency next season.  Let's assume the Colts get back up to around 400 rush attempts in 2010 (up from about 366 in 2009 - lowest in the NFL), Donald Brown's portion of that will come in at around 180, Addai's slightly higher, and Mike Hart will also get a small handful.  Addai's value is highest in PPR leagues as he had 60 recepts last year.  Bottom line, with 240 total estimated touches, it's hard for me to forecast another 13 TD season.  He's a low-end  RB2 in a basic format, and a few spots higher in a PPR. I just don't see the upside.

Donald Brown – He will probably be ranked as a high RB2 at this time next year. He's faster and bigger than Addai, and if he improves his pass-blocking, he's a near guarantee to be the featured guy. I've read that there are doubts as to whether Donald Brown can be a featured RB - I lean on his 367 carry, 2083 yard senior season at UCONN as support that he can be featured. He just needs to protect Peyton's blindside better, and if he doesn't, then yeah, no PT for yooouuu. That's what kept him off the field in '09 (his lack of pass-blocking). Well that, and a couple of injuries that kept him out of action for 5 games. Every RB produces consistently (except Addai) on a Peyton Manning led football team - if given a shot. The Colts will ride out Addai for one more season, and then send him packing. Donald Brown's value in 2010 is as a handcuff to Addai.

WRs

Reggie Wayne - It's bizarre to me that Reggie Wayne has already been in the league 9 years. A prevailing question with Wayne in 2010 is... has he peaked? My guess is probably. He had a 1.4 ypc decrease year over year (14.0 down to 12.6 in '09), but his TD count and yardage was fine at 1200+ and 10. I think what scares me most about Wayne is all of the new weapons at Manning's disposal. Garcon, Collie, and the Colts will be getting A-Gon back. Garcon has the most upside of the three, and could take a bite into the targets this season. As long as Wayne is the WR1 on Colts with a Peyton Manning under center, it's enough to rank him among the top 10 fantasy wide outs.

Pierre Garcon – Garcon enters 2010 as the Colts likely WR2, or he should, anyway. Peyton Manning, in one season, went from very worried about his lack of WRs outside of Wayne (with Harrison retiring) to having a glut of them. What happens to Anthony Gonzalez? He's back from his knee injury (that kept him out of all but one contest in 2009), being quoted as saying "he's 100%" healed etc. Bottom line, the starting wide-out gig is Garcon's to lose, and I don't see A-gon challenging Collie for slot duties. A-gon will be given a shot to compete for reps, so there is risk with drafting Garcon. Reggie Wayne was able to produce heavily as a WR2 with Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark around, so expect Garcon to shine eventually. It just may not be that consistent this season. 

Austin Collie-  Collie will be in the slot this season come hell or high water. A-gon and P Garcon will duke it out for the WR2 spot opposite Wayne, and we expect Garcon to easily win that one. Collie is the quintessential slot man - but as the 4th targets on this pass-happy team, we aren't expecting a lot of consistent production out of him. And what makes him more limiting, is that if Wayne or Garcon were to go down, Anthony Gonzalez would likely be put into their spot.

TE

Dallas Clark - I can't get behind ranking Clark number one because of the emerging target threats in Indy.  With Garcon split out opposite Wayne, and Collie in the slot, Manning has 4 dependable targets he can count on, and my guess is that Clark's targets are going to slip a little.   I may even end up bumping him down some more - depending on how Kolb and Celek look in the pre-season.    Either way, TEs are deep this year, so don't jump the gun on Clark, when you could wait and a guy like Jermichael Finley or even Tony G. 

Indianapolis Colts 2010 NFL Draft By Round

2010 TEAM NAME off-season moves