2009 Fantasy Recap – Houston Texans

The Texans missed the NFL playoffs yet again, but did achieve a fairly important milestone… Matt the Schaub started all 16 games for the first time in his career.  It’s been baby steps for this franchise since they began back in 2002

But at least they’ve been able to show steady progress.   

Andre Johnson accomplished something that few WRs have in the NFL – he led the league in passing yards for a 2^nd straight year with 1,569 yards – he also led all fantasy WRs in pts at 211 (basic format).   2009 also threw one Jacoby Jones on fantasy radars for this season as hr proceeded to catch 6 TDs and 437 yards in only 1 start and only 40 targets.  The hamstring injury that set Kevin Walter’s 2009 off to the wrong start seemed to linger all season – either that, or the guy suck snow.  I am still trying to figure out why they would re-sign him to a 20+ million dollar contract – especially with Jones’ emergence, and also that they have a TE in Owen Daniels to consider.

On that note, Owen Daniels sure took a shot to the eye last year.  He was unhappy about his contract situation, briefly held out, and when that didn’t get him anywhere, he showed up to camp, and let his play do the negotiating.  He was on a roll, too – 500 yards and 5 TDs thru 7 games, and then BOO to the YAH – ACL tear - #3 in his career.  Not cool.  No wonder he wanted a new contract.  It’s important to look at this situation when you read that a guy is holding out for a new contract.  The NFL can cut a guy any time they want. 

Moving on – Steve Slaton screwed over all of the sneaky fantasy minds (me) that were high on him after such a stellar rookie campaign.   In that high-octane offense it should have been Slaton along with CJ28 lighting up defenses in 2009.  Hey Steve, was that you that I saw at the Cajun restaurant ordering a big fat plate of Fumbalaya?  He lost 5 fumbles bested only by Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson in the NFL among rushers.  Don’t be fooled, though,  as they each had double the touches of a Slaton.

Passing Offense  

·         593 attempts (ranked 4th^th)

·         67.3 % completion percentage (ranked 3^rd)

·         4654 pass yards (ranked 1^st)

·         291 yards per game

·         8.1 Yards per attempt (ranked 6^th)

·         29 TDs (t-5^th) and 17 INTs (t-14^th)

·         25 Sacks (28^th)

·         96.3 QB rating for team (ranked 7^th)

Rushing Offense  

·         425 attempts (ranked 20th)

·         1475 rush yards (ranked 30^th)

·         92.2 yards per game

·         3.5 yards per carry (ranked 31^st)

·         13 TDs (ranked 18^th)

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

 Texans  UltimateFFstrategy.com In-Depth Oline Analysis  

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Gary Kubiak comes back for his 5^th season and he has hired Rick Dennison who he coached alongside with in Denver as his offensive coordinator.   Dennison coached the offensive line in Denver for 5 years from 2001-2005 and then succeeded Kubiak as OC under Shanahan when he moved on to head coach the Texans.    There were two primary reasons that the Texans didn’t go to the playoffs in 2009 – rush defense and rush offense.   Their D let up 17 TDs on the ground (24^th in the NFL), but more importantly to fantasy football, their rushing offense was embarrassing.    As a team, they finished with 3.5 YPC, and top on Rick Dennison’s to-do list is to get that number up at least over 4.0 YPC.   The passing game needs know work.

AIR:  The Schaub and Andre Johnson will only get better with time and experience together.  Kevin Walter enters training camp as a starter, but probably won’t be leaving as one.  There is a pretty fierce positional battle going on between him and Jacoby Jones, and despite that the Texans inked Walter to a $20 million contract, my money is on Jones.  He has infinitely more upside than Walter, and the Texans are looking to take advantage of the double and triple teams that ‘Dre constantly sees – and Jones is their ticket.   More Jacoby is the only major change you will see, but it can only help ‘Dre and Schaub.  Also, Owen Daniels will be back, and as long as he is healthy, it will serve to hold down the WR2 – Walter or Jones – from a fantasy perspective.

GROUND:  The Texans wasted no time in April outlining their confidence in their current backfield by selecting Ben Tate in the 2^nd round.  Tate is a banger.  A big boy with speed.  He is the perfect complement to Steve Slaton on 3^rd downs.  Arian Foster will certainly have something to say about that in 2010, but he is not in their long-term plans.  This situation is a mess and I’ll be avoiding it on fantasy draft day unless Tate is named the starter after blowing the lid off things in the pre-season.  I wouldn’t trust Arian Foster, though.  And I think I made myself pretty clear on Slaton above.   

QB

Matt Schaub- If the Schaub can string together another 16 games (sort of a big "if"), he has the potential to lead the league in fantasy scoring in '10. 'Dre is in his prime, Jacoby Jones is emerging, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels are now healthy, and Slaton, while a bit fumble-prone, is a strong 3rd down back. If there wasn't so much depth, he'd be ranked higher. Injury is the only thing holding this guy back. If you draft Schaub, you will want to spend high on a backup, as last year was just his first 16 game season. But I gotta tell you, my goal in the draft may just be to land the Schaub after nabbing 2 RBs and 2 WRs (ADPs have him going around 45-50th overall as of mid-July!)

RB

Ben Tate - Tate is a beast with a ton of upside. He does, however, remain among a crowded backfield consisting of Steve Slaton and Arian Foster. Slaton has major fumble problems that will have coach Kubiak shuddering on every hand off - and to call Slaton's leash short is a major understatement. Foster showed promise and is a favorite of RB coach Chick Harris heading into training camp, but Tate is all-around more talented - better vision, faster, and makes quicker decisions. In either event, Slaton will most likely cut into carries some - but again, one fumble, and he may have splinter butt. W/ the firepower in the passing attack, whoever wins this job should notch a ton of short TDs in 2010 - my money's on Tate.

Arian Foster - I currently have him ranked below Ben Tate, despite that Foster enters camp as the starter. Tate has more upside, and no NFL team in the league is shy about sticking rookies into action right away - especially ones that cost a 2nd round pick. Foster, on the other hand, was not drafted last year (signed as undrafted free agent), and has a very limited range. Why would the Texans have bothered with Tate if they thought they had something in Foster? They could have always just held onto Moats as a backup and finish 25th in the NFL rushing the ball again. Foster's only hope is that Tate struggles to pick things up like pass protection or learning the offense. Doubtful, as Tate impressed the coaches in OTAs (despite a brief hamstring pull).

Steve Slaton - I was blinded by Steve Slaton in 2009.  I was locked in on his supporting cast and the gaping holes that should have been available to him - as they were in 2008.  How was I to know that he'd develop one of the most severe cases of fumbilitis on record - 5 lost fumbles in only 175 touches - unheard of by a RB.  At any rate, he's now the Reggie Bush of the Houston Texans, but with a fumbling problem. To say his leash is short, is like saying life needs oxygen and water.  Arian Foster enters camp as the primary down back, and Ben Tate will work to overtake him.  Slaton isn't a consideration for that role. He's also recovering from a somewhat serious neck injury to boot. Take a late round flier on him, and hope it pans - I'm sure weirder things have happened.

WR

Andre Johnson - The Houston Texans can safely call the Matt Schaub experiment a success. After finally realizing that David Carr was wasting their most prized offensive weapon, the Texans made a move for relatively unknown and unproven Matt Schaub from the Falcons. Since Schaub arrived in the Oil capital, Andre Johnson has averaged 97.4 YPG and hasn't scored less than 8 TDs in a season. Prior to Schaub's arrival, he was averaging 65 YPG and had never caught more than 6 TDs in a season. The targets were always there, but the David Carr wobblers were usually out of reach. He plays a position in the NFL where narcissism is the norm (see TO, Ochocinco, Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, Roy Williams, Michael Crabtree), yet he is among the most humble guys in the league. I guess the only cause for concern is that no player in NFL history has three-peated as the top fantasy WR. He did so in 2008 and 2009. But even if he doesn't finish as the top guy, he is a pretty safe pick when you look at the alternatives. Randy is getting up there in age, Megatron has questions at QB, and Miles Austin doesn't quite have the experience. Roddy White is another guy that could probably pull off league-leading #s, as long as Matt Ryan takes the next step in his career. All told, 'Dre has the best combo of QB talent, offensive scheme, and skills.

Jacoby Jones - ***contract year player alert*** Jacoby Jones was featured as a one of our top sleepers earlier this Spring, and nothing has changed. He remains a top candidate to replace Kevin Walter lining up opposite Andre Johnson. The only concern there is that the Texans just re-upped Kevin Walter for starter money this past spring - which makes no sense at all, but maybe they like their whitey receivers for reasons unknown to the rest of us. Jones averaged 16.2 YPC - top 10 among NFL WRs - and also caught 6 of the Schaub's TDs in 2009 on only 40 targets - he also had 430+ yards receiving. If he could manage to double his targets, we are talking low end WR3 numbers. He's currently being drafted, but very deep. He also makes an excellent handcuff for 'Dre owners.

Kevin Walter - Kevin Walter was signed to a $20+ million dollar deal this past spring. It's as if an average fantasy owner and a real NFL owner have somehow switched bodies. What is the market for a white WR that can't seem to string together two solid fantasy seasons in an offense that loves to chuck the ball lining up opposite the best WR in the game? Do they think he's Wes Welker? Add to that Jacoby Jones' emergence, and one must wonder what else they could procured on the open market with that $20+ million. As it stands, in a best-case scenario, the 3rd target (behind 'Dre and Owen Daniels) can squeeze out some WR3 value, and that's assuming that Jacoby doesn't make the splash that everyone is anticipating him to make in 2010. But he's not being targeted that high in drafts this season (54th among WRs in ADPs), so 'Dre owners could do worse than to pull a late-round flier on this guy just in case.

TE

Owen Daniels - He notched 498 yards and 5 TDs in the first 7 games of 2009. He went down in the first half of week 8 so we are leaving those stats off that count. Amortized over 16 games, that's some serious production (over 1,130 yards and 11 TDs). He was bummed about his contract situation at this time last season, and then tore his ACL (the 3rd such injury he's experienced in his career). He is still w/o a long term deal - who could blame him for being a little pissed off. All indications are that his knee is healed, and he will be again out to prove his value to the Texans. There is risk w/ this pick, but he's only 27, and should be good to go. There are only two guys with his kind of potential after this ranking (Winslow and Zach Miller on the Raiders), and neither has the QB situation (nor play w/ Andre Johnson).

Houston Texans 2010 NFL Draft

2010 Houston Texans off-season moves

Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Houston Texans - Published July 2009