Click here for out 2009 Analysis on the Detroit Lions - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Detroit Lions

The Lions – In 2009, the Lions got exactly what they wanted out of their season; a win.  Two, actually,  but they also got plenty of experience for Matthew Stafford.   It wasn’t a pretty year for the Lions on either side of the ball.  They finished dead last in overall defense.  Not many opposing QB/RB/WR didn’t have memorable fantasy outings.   And on offense, while Stafford showed some spunk, he mostly struggled – as did Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton after Stafford went down.  As for Megatron - he was hobbled for most of the season with knee issues, and to make matters worse, Bryant Johnson, the colossal bust (the Cardinals drafted him before they nabbed Anquan Boldin the same year) of the 2003 NFL draft, was split out wide opposite him.  So hobbled, Calvin was dealing with double and often triple teams... on every play.  His numbers definitely suffered, as there was nothing else to worry for opposing defenses to sweat.

Detroit threw the most interceptions of any team in the league and they had the 31^st ranked team QB rating of 58.1.  I’ll give you one guess as to who the 32^nd team was?   Hint –Lebron just took a giant steaming dump on this city’s head. 

The rushing game was dreadful as well (24^th in yards and 22^nd in TDs).   As with all pro sports teams,  the Lions scrambled to make changes.  I found it a bit odd, but staying true to their history of spending high in the draft on offense, that they would grab Jahvid Best.  It’s not that I don’t believe Best is a total beast, but moreso that their defense was so poor, that in my mind, their entire draft this and next year should be dedicated to it.  They at least grabbed a Suh, though (he’s a nut).  But I digress. 

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Detroit Lions 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Air

Detroit is in its second year being run by Jim Schwartz and coordinated by Scott Linehan.  They want to be a throwing team, that’s why they drafted the strong arm in Matt Stafford.  Throwing is also what Linehan does best.  He had his best years running the offense in Minnesota from 2002-2004 where Daunte Culpepper was a fantasy stud for all three years (wouldn’t have happened without Moss, though, but Stafford has Calvin, so we’re good).   Linehan likes the QBs with big arms, that is why he had trouble in Miami with Gus Frerotte and in STL when Bulger just got old.  Stafford is a great fit for Linehan – as we’re all about to find out.

Ground

On the ground, it will be tough for Jahvid Best to be a breakout player RIGHT AWAY.   For starters, Kevin Smith is still around, and bent on proving that the ACL tear he suffered in 2009 isn’t going to ruin his career (jury is still out on that one).    More to the point, though, is the fact that Linehan has only had one successful fantasy back on his team in his years as a head coach or Offensive Coordinator -  Steven Jackson -  and he is power/every down RB.   In Minnesota,  Linehan had trouble with quicker small backs; Michael Bennett, Moe Williams, or Onterrio Smith never cracked the top ten in FF running backs (the closest was Mo Williams who was 13^th  in 03).  Best, though, was a machine in college and has the big play speed and agility, and those are the two things that make CJ28 very successful in the league.   You can bet that Linehan will be moving Best all over the place to take advantage of his athleticism out of the gates.    The lack of rush attempts in 2009 was simply due to the fact that the run wasn’t working… like at all.   

QB

Matthew Stafford– Bet you didn't know that Stafford finished 15th overall in fantasy pts per game among QBs at 18.8 per? Once you can calm down from that mind bullet, I'll then lay you out w/ the following... The Lions offense was pretty bad in '09... and '08, and '07 (etc), and they are finally taking steps to correct the issue. First, they brought in OG Rob Sims from Seattle - and while it was not a package deal, they brought another Seattle-ian, Nate Burleson, back to the NFC North to help Mega-tron w/ his routine triple teams. Finally, they invested a high draft pick in a RB (I know, not a WR, shocking), Jahvid Best, who should help to balance the offense with Kevin Smith nursing constant injuries last season. I mean, look, Stafford was a rookie, playing behind a banged up oline, w/ his all-world WR banged up for much of the season w/ knee issues, and his RB banged up as well. And he finished 15th in fantasy pts per game. You following my math here?

Verdict: He's being drafted as the 21st QB in recent ADP reports - that's too late. He's gonna return far higher ROI than that. He'll be an excellent backup.

RB

Jahvid Best - Quick - how many NFL RBs have successfully come back from torn ACLs? There have definitely been a few - but not in 9-10 months. Kevin Smith tore his in week 14, and I just don't see him coming back full bore to command a ton of carries, which puts Best in a great position to shine this season. The only issue is that there weren't a lot of holes for Smith while he was healthy last year, and I'm anxious to see how the additions of OG Rob Simms, and WR Nate Burleson affect the offense this season. Balance is the goal, obviously, as Mega-tron was either double or triple teamed all last season, leaving the other 8 cats on the field to maul Kevin Smith.

Verdict: Best has sick wheels, and is a threat in-between tackles (though he's small), turning the corner, and catching out of the backfield. There is a ton of upside that comes along with calling Jahvid's name on draft day.

Kevin Smith - It's such a bummer that this guy tore up his left ACL last season, because I had high expectations for his career. He's one of the good guys, good heart, good attitude, and the skills to go along w/ all of that goodness. It's tough to come back from torn ACL as a RB. It's not impossible, though (see Willis McGahee). That said, before Smith was injured, he was not doing much behind that patchwork offensive line, and while he can't be blamed, the seed was probably already planted in Lions' management's mind that changes were needed.  Once the season ended they started exploring trade options, and as we saw in April, invested a high draft pick Jahvid Best.  

Verdict:  A best case scenario for Kevin Smith this season is the minority of carries in a RBBC, or full time duty if Best were to go down. Draft him as an average handcuff to Best.

WR

Calvin Johnson- We've seen Mega-tron's downside in 2009 - 18th among WRs in fantasy points per game (he missed two games to injury). From my purview, this represents the lowest possible outcome when drafting Calvin Johnson. He was dinged up in pretty much every contest in 2009 - knee and hand injuries most notably. He was playing with a rookie QB. From a skills standpoint, only another Johnson - Andre - rivals Mega-tron. Randy Moss does, too, but he's on the downside of his career (though you wouldn't guess it from his numbers).

Verdict: Matt Stafford doesn't strike me as the type to choke and have a sophomore slump, but let's say he does - how bad can it get? Roddy White didn't suffer one bit as a result of Matt Ryan's numbers. And finally, the most important element to this equation - the addition of Nate Burleson. Burleson represents, by far, the best talent split out opposite of Mega-tron in his 3 years as a pro. Mark me down as a bull.

Nate Burleson – I've spent plenty of the last 4-5 years ripping Burleson for being soft.  And he IS soft; soft as the pillow that he bites.  Weak attempts at humor aside, he's NEVER lined opposite a WR of Mega-tron's caliber - let's face it, few have.  And if Burleson can stay healthy (and that's a big fat friggin' IF), he could be looking at a return to fantasy relevance. 

Verdict: I'm seeing WR3 status to the tune of 950 yards and 4-5 TD in his future.

TE

Tony Scheffler – After being shipped out of town by Josh McDaniels for not fitting into his offense, Scheffler lands on two feet in the Motor City.   He will assume receiving TE duties while Pettigrew stays in and does what he's best at (that's not a slam, either, Pettigrew can do it all), which is block.  Tough to say what kind of looks he will get - especially with the addition of Burleson and rookie RB Jahvid Best out of the backfield (and spending some time in the slot).

Verdict: Scheffler could be a last round pick of your draft that pans for you in your starter's bye week. Sweet.

2010 Detroit Lions NFL Draft

2010 Detroit Lions Off-season Movement

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