Passing Offense

• ·         477 attempts   (ranked 27^th)
• ·         60% completion % (ranked 20^th)
• ·         2,890 pass yards  (ranked 26^th)
• ·         181 yards per game
• ·         6.6 Yards per attempt (ranked 19^th)
• ·         21 TDs (tied 16^th) and 13 INTs (tied 22^nd)
• ·         29 Sacks (tied 24^th low is good)
• ·         82.7 QB rating (ranked 17th)

Rushing Offense

• ·         468 attempts (ranked 4^th)
• ·         2,056 rush yards (ranked 9^th)
• ·         128.5.5 yards per game
• ·         4.1 yards per carry (ranked 24^th)
• ·         9 TDs (ranked 22^nd)

The Bengals - I think I may still be hung-over from being so proud for calling Cedric Benson right as a sleeper before last season.  Look, I know I brag a lot, but this was extra special – because I’m from Chicago and had to put aside my extreme negative bias toward Benson for the good of fantasy nation.  But the writing was on the wall for a breakout season last year.  After all, Rudi Johnson looked like an all-star running for the Bengals for a few years prior.

Marvin Lewis succeeded in solidifying their identity last season as a run-first operation.  It was certainly frustrating for Palmer owners who were expecting a return to fantasy greatness – he didn’t even put up fantasy-starter worthy numbers – hell they were barely in the top 20.   Ochocinco, though, managed to stay fantasy-relevant w/ his 9 TDs and 1,047 yards.  Laveranues Coles confirmed for everyone that his career is effectively over.  I thought he may be able to come over to Cinci and, with a decent QB, put up some top 30 WR numbers, and wow was I wrong. 

Bob Bratkowski returns for his 10^th season as the OC in Cinci and Marvin Lewis for his 8^th as head coach.   As already mentioned, the Bengals have morphed back into a run-first shop, after spending a couple years there from 2005-2007 taking advantage of Carson Palmer’s gun of an arm and passing the ball an average of 530+ times a season.   

In 2010, you can expect more of the same as it is not lost on Marv on what got them back atop the NFC North division; stingy defense and grounding out the tough yards.    They did go out and take yet another chance on a controversial NFL personality signing the mercurial (personality-wise) Antonio Bryant to a 4-year contract.  Perhaps this is an indication of a commitment to fix their garbage fantasy passing game?  Certainly Coles wasn’t the answer in 2009.      

Chad Ochocinco  – He spent the spring “Dancing With the Stars” – and looked like a real chief in the process.

Palmer targeted Ocho over 25% of his attempts in 2009. Chad’s YPC remained strong at 14.5, so while he just turned 32 in January, he hasn’t yet lost a step. TO is in town, and Ocho has expressed no issue with taking a back seat to his VH1 reality TV show cohort. The Bengals were largely a running team in 2009, and most of that, I contend, was to bring Carson Palmer back slowly from his season-ending elbow injury in 2008. If the Bengals were planning to run more again, they wouldn't have gone out and procured Antonio Bryant, TO, and spent a 1st round draft pick on pass-catching TE Jermaine Gresham from Oklahoma. Just remember how productive TJ Housh and Cinco were together just a few years back. Both Cinco and TO will have plenty of balls thrown their way.

Terrell Owens - TO is now a Bengal, and just skyrocketed about 20 places up my stack rankings. At 36 years old, he really hasn't lost much of a step. There is not another physical specimen like him in the league, and with Carson Palmer chuckin' him the ball, the only thing to worry about is how many passing attempts there are in Cinci. Last year, they only attempted 477 passes. A lot of that had to do w/ the emergence of Cedric Benson, but Marvin Lewis also sought to keep his defense fresh by playing ball-control, and it worked as the Bengals had their best season in ages. However, Laveranues Coles was a shell of his former self, and Chris Henry went down with a broken wrist, leaving not much to work with for Palmer. The Bengals will attempt more passes in 2010, or why bother risking the locker-room with TO?

Antonio Bryant – The TO signing can only mean one thing for Bryant – his knee injury from 2009 must not be fully healed. Assuming he is ok, though, he will be taking a backseat to both Ochocinco and TO in the target department, but what a helluva of a trio these guys could make. Bryant’s temper, injury, and circumstances (not talent) have kept him to only 2 fantasy relevant seasons in 8 years. He spent 2007 on the couch, and had a couple of seasons stopped short due to injury or behavior. But he has 30 career TDs and only 372 receptions. Impressive numbers. He represents one of the few legitimate handcuffs for WRs (either TO or Ocho), and should be selected at the very end of fantasy drafts.

Cedric Benson – He only played in 13 games, yet finished as a top 15 RB in 2009.  Bernard Scott was absolutely brilliant in his place for a couple of games, and given the amount that the Bengals are expected to run again, I wouldn’t be shocked if these two come together to be a similar version of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  Why not?  You know that Benson can’t handle 30 carries a game w/o getting all gimped out, and Scott provides a speedy change of pace back to keep defenses on their heels, w/ Benson being the quintessential in-between-the-tackles runner.  About a week ago, Benson was arrested for smacking some dude in the jaw – yes, of course, out at a bar.  Let’s just hope that ol’ Roger Goodell doesn’t have anything to say about this one.  We’ll keep you posted via our “Current Rankings”.   

Verdict:   Benson toted the ball 300 times in 13 games last season, and I expect no more than 320 if he can manage all 16 games this season.   The team TD count of 9 rushing on the season is cause for concern – there is really only way to go from there, right?  I’m targeting him as a RB2 this season, just inside the top 20.

Bernard Scott – Scott is getting some fantasy “expert” love here as we all try and find our “Super” sleeper candidates for 2010.  As long one doesn’t forget that his two games as a starter in place of Benson came against 1) Cleveland (31^st ranked) and 2) Oakland (26^th ranked), you should be okay.    This kid is lightning fast, and strong enough to break some tackles, too.  He has yet to meet the end-zone, but that should change in 2010 as I see his carry count jumping up to the 120-130 mark – and that is assuming Benson’s health.      

Verdict:  He is a strong handcuff.  Benson owners will want to start targeting this cat once they’ve locked down a starting lineup, a backup QB, WR, and RB.  So about the 12^th-13^th round – just to safeguard against the vultures of your league.  

Carson Palmer – I had to totally re-do Palmer's projection after the TO signing. I thought it was weird the Bengals drafted a receiving tight end (Jermaine Gresham) from Oklahoma, with a first rounder. Then they went out and signed Antonio Bryant to a lucrative contract. Well, they must have been scared stiff at Bryant and his wobbly knee, so they nose-dove off a cliff and took their chances with the enigmatic Terrell Owens. These aren't the actions of a team that is going to be pound the ball another 500+ times in 2010. I figured it all out this past weekend (Aug 1st)... Palmer suffered an elbow injury that ended his 2008 season just 4 games in. He was supposed to have surgery on the elbow, but said surgery would have kept him out of most, if not all of 2009. The Bengals invested $118 million in Palmer, and opted to bring him along slowly in 2009, turning to the running game, so as not to risk their prized possession. Well, mission accomplished, and now they are going to go back to what they did best earlier this decade - Pass. It's the only way to make sense of all of the movement to bolster up their pass catching corps. Plus, why would they have LJ go if they were gonna run the ball another 500+ times? Makes no sense.

Cinci hasn’t produced a fantasy relevant TE in decades.

 Bengals UltimateFFstrategy.com In-Depth Oline Analysis  These guys do a strong job breaking it down for 2010.   

Cincinnati Bengals

Defensive Stats 2009 

Vs Run            7^th in league     98 ypg

Vs Pass            6^th in league     203 ypg

Offensive Stats 2009

Run                 9^th in league     129 ygp

Pass                 26^th in league   181 ypg

What they did well last year?

Overview (Offensively and Defensively) – If you are somebody who remembers back to a few years ago when Carson Palmer was considered a top 5 fantasy QB then you remember when both Chad (Johnson at the time) and TJ Housh were both putting up fantasy starter stats.  You may also remember that Rudi Johnson was typically putting up 1200 yards and 12 TDs.  It was a balanced offense that was capable of putting up a lot of points on the board and the truth is that they desperately needed every one of those scores.  The defense was atrocious… that was then…  Looking at the offensive and defensive stats from last year would make it difficult to believe that this is the same team only a few years later.  Do you realize that this team went 10-6 last year and they succeeded to score 24 or more points just 3 times and only 2 of those games were for victories (Chicago and Green Bay)?  Here is a stat that I found surprising… Palmer threw for over 300 yards only once last year and it was in a close loss to San Diego. 

Now look at the defensive side of the ball… this was a top 10 rated defense in all facets of the game.  Defensive Backs Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph both had 6 INTs a piece.  Antwan Odom obtained 8 QB sacks in only 6 games before getting injured.  Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga are 2 of the more talented young linebackers and they are learning well from MLB Dhani Jones and his 10 years of experience.  The reason why I am pointing out how well the defense was last year is that it was the defense that truly dictated the offensive production last year.  Look at the Baltimore Ravens… there is a team that succeeds in using their defense to keep the score low and they run the ball to control the time of possession and control the pace of the game.  Baltimore’s style of play allows them to often win the low scoring “grinders”.  Now look at how Cincy fared against Baltimore last year… they beat them TWICE at their own game by beating them 17-14 and 17-7.

Cedric Benson had 7 games last year in which he had more than 20 carries.  Keep in mind that he also missed 2 games.  That means that in half of his games that he obtained at least 20 carries.  In fact, he averaged just over 23 carries per game over the full season.  Off the top of your head, can you name how many other RBs can say the same?  The fact is that the Bengals went into a coaching cocoon and emerged a new creature.  They emerged as a team that succeeded in running the ball a lot last season and then relied upon their young defensive players to keep them in games.   

What they need to do to improve?

Utilize the passing game more – They realized that Coles was not the answer the needed opposite Ochocinco so they brought in Antonio Bryant to give Carson Palmer another weapon.  They need to stretch the field more and prevent defenses from dropping the extra man into the box and attempting to stifle the running game.

Get their young Offensive line more time to gel – Kyle Cook has 2 years of experience at center.  Nate Livings now has 2 years of experience and started 9 games last season at left guard.  Last year’s first round pick, Andre Smith held out of camp and then fell to injuries that left him to see action in only 6 games at right tackle.  Andrew Whitworth was a pleasant surprise once he was moved to left tackle.  However, the best off season move for the Bengals could be resigning Bobbie Williams who brings back his 10 years of experience to help a young and developing offensive line that produced quite well as a run blocking unit last year.  Time together and experience will help them develop in their cohesive ability to pass block better.

Can they improve & WHY?

Health and Off-Season Moves – This is the team to beat in the division this year.  Yes, the Ravens brought in some big offseason moves and yes… the Steelers are a contender every year.  However, this team was quite a surprise last year and they will only build upon their new philosophies they bought into last year.  With another year for the Offensive Line to develop and learn how to pass protect better and with Andre Smith projected to be back healthy for the season, this offense will continue to “pound the rock”.  Defensively, the team will welcome back a healthy Antwon Odom and they also brought in Gibril Wilson to help provide a tackling machine and some depth in the secondary.  This team will be the team to watch in the division this year.

Receiver Help on the Horizon? – The team brought in Antonio Bryant, but reports have been quiet regarding the health of his leg.  There is still speculation as to whether or not that injury will prevent him from performing at his full potential this season.  They did draft Dezmon Briscoe and Jordan Shipley, but the staff views them as projects for the program to develop.  If there is a team that may end up being in the hunt for the TO sweepstakes, I think the Bengals would be a good fit.  Not only has Carson Palmer and Ochocinco been lobbying management to take a look at TO, but the Bengals would also be a good fit as the management does not seemed to be deterred by any concerns of “character issues” (as many other teams are).  This is the same team that is currently working with Tank Johnson and Pacman Jones.  Adding Terrell Owens to the mix would not appear to be such a locker room distraction with this crew already in place.  I would not be surprised to see TO in stripes this season and then getting flagged for excessive TD celebrations while doing his “dancing with the stars” moves with Ochocinco in the end zone.

So What Does All This Mean For My Fantasy Football Draft? 

1.) Barring injury, Cedric Benson will produce stats that could merit a first round pick.  The defense will continue to keep low scoring games.  The offensive line did a great job of run blocking last year, but struggled at times with pass blocking.  Although the line will be gaining experience and should develop in this area, I would not expect too much development in this area too soon.  Also, Benson has no proven competition.  I agree that Bernard Scott has potential, but he was not able to prove what he could do against Pittsburgh last year when Benson went down with the injury.  He bolstered 13 carries for a total of 33 yards and he got stuffed in short yardage situations.  Scott did produce against Oakland and Cleveland by combining for 39 carries and 206 yards but those were against weaker rushing defenses.  However, he was not used in 2 goal line situations and once again he was stuffed in short yardage situations even against OAK and CLE.  I cannot buy into the off season words from the coaching staff that say that they want to utilize Bernard Scott more and rest Benson.  Benson produced against tough defenses last year many times (Baltimore – 27-120-1 & 34-117-1, Green Bay (the top ranked rushing defense from last season) 29-141, Minnesota 16-96, NYJ playoffs 21-169-1).  They will continue to grind Benson out this season with an average of 25 carries a game.  Plus, Benson will welcome the opportunity to pound out another 300+ carries as he attempts to get himself a contract after this upcoming season.      

Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Cincinnati Bengals - Published July 2009