Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Chicago Bears - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Chicago Bears

Da Bears – Could the 2009 Bears season have started higher?  The team finally had the franchise quarterback that had been missing for over 20 years, an up and coming running back that was ready to continue his impact on the league.  And in classic Bears fashion everything fell apart.  The golden boy had to prove that he was a man so he was chucking up bombs (and INTS) and forcing too many throws.  It didn't help that he had an in-experienced crew of WRs.  Outcome? 27 interceptions and a lovely passer rating of 75.6.  Then Matt Forte gave a massive kick in the nuts to fantasy owners.  Preseason draft boards had him ranked in the early-mid first round (that's what we like to call sh*tting the bed) and he finished 26th in fantasy points per game, thus earning him the nickname Matt "Forty" - as in the # of yards he'd rush for in a game.  It's worth noting that Forte was nursing nagging injuries for most of the season.

2009 did bring clarity on some major problems of the Bears.  That offensive line looked so old that the “Golden Girls” (RIP Rue) look young by comparison (the line allowed 35 sacks, 79 qb hits, and the team only averaged 4.0 YPC).  Anyone who watched that team play knows that Betty White could have done more for that team then Orlando Pace - who everyone was so pumped to have acquired at this time last year - ha. The season also shined a light on offensive coordinator Ron Turner's incompetency, leaving him to be fired.  Unfortunately, management missed seeing the incompetency of Lovie Smith.

We saw one lone, bright, potential fantasy vortex with the end-of-season play of Devin Aromashodu.  Cutler begged his coaches to play Aroma, and showed them over the final 4 weeks what was possible for seasons to come.  The only NFL WR to outproduce Aroma over the last 4 games of the season was Miles Austin.  More on that below.

2009 Passing Offense  

2009 Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Let the Mike Martz era commence in Chicago.  Martz is the new OC and may be what the Bears offense has been looking for.  After dull stints with Detroit and San Francisco he is hoping he finds a long term in Chicago.  It's no secret that Mike Martz favors the pass over the run.  - both seasons w/ Martz calling the plays.   When Martz coached in St Louis from 2000-2005, check these stats: 

• 2008 - As OC in San Francisco, the Niners finished in 27th in Rush attempts.
• 2006-7 - As head coach the Detroit Lions finished 2006 and 2007 in last place in rushing attempts
• 2005  - as head coach the Rams finished 29th in the NFL in rush attempts. 
• 2002-2004 as head coach - the Rams finished 30th in rush attempts each year.
• 2000-2001 as head coach the Rams finished 25th and 22nd respectively - and that was only because Faulk was in his prime. 

Are we starting to see a trend here?

Why should we believe that Martz will stick in the Bears' tradition of ground and pound going forward?  The Bears looked at the same stats that I just rattled off, and it would be odd to assume that after dropping all of their prime 2009 and 2010 draft picks for a purported "franchise" QB (Cutler), that they aren't gonna play to that strength in 2010 and beyond.  

The only reason to remain enthused about Forte is that he is quite adept at catching balls out of the backfield, so his targets should remain up there in the 60-70 range.  How he splits time w/ Chester Taylor remains a huge concern, because the Bears are not paying him $7 million this season to ride pine. 

Martz will turn Devin Aromashodu into fantasy WR1 before mid-season - more on that below.  Just look at the stat lines for Roy Williams (best two fantasy ppg averages under Martz), Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce. 

So the outlooks for Cutler, Forte, and the receivers are good but Greg Olsen’s outlook is dull.  Martz has never been a fan for the TE (never has a Martz TE cracked the top ten in TE fantasy points) and he has had good potential at the position (i.e. Vernon Davis).  That is not saying Greg Olsen will be awful because he is still a favorite of Cutler, and Martz is said to be enamored w/ Olsen's skill set.  Just stay even-keeled when evaluating Olsen at drafts this summer.

2010 Player Outlook

QB

Jay Cutler – If Cutler can manage to not chuck another 4 INTs to open up the season, he's got a shot to flourish in 2010. Along with everyone else in fantasy nation, I'm on the "Martz is gonna turn Cutler into fantasy gold" bandwagon. Martz made Kitna sorta fantasy relevant for a season in Detroit, but didn't have much to work with in San Francisco. And we all know what he did with a grocery bag-boy in St. Louis... Chicago has not had a prolific passing game - save for those two glorious years w/ the Erik Kramer/Curtis Conway/Jeff Graham connection in the mid-90s, but that is about to change. Devin Aromashodu has a lot of eyebrows raised (ours included) and Hester, Knox, and Bennett all took steps in their careers in 2009. The Bears now boast two pass catchers out of the backfield in Forte and newly acquired Chester Taylor. Expect improvements out of Cutler in 2010. He finished 11th last season, and mentally, he imploded. Martz should be able to correct some of his problems.

Verdict:  Cutler is obviously going to be starter this year and his stats will be much better than last years.  He now has receivers with some experience, a competent offensive coordinator, and two running backs who can catch a pass.  He should shine.

RB

Matt Forte - He is honored as 2009's biggest bust. Oddly, he did still notch 1,400 total yards, but the 4 TDs was a real sting for owners who drafted him as high as 3rd overall last season. So what's gonna be in 2010, Matt Forty? No, the Y is not a misprint, Matt garnered himself a new nickname reflective of his the typical # of rushing yards he gave fantasy owners last year. Surprisingly, his YPA only dipped .3 yards (to 3.6) between his stellar '08 to '09. It was the TDs that were non-existent. Forty sprained an MCL in week 3 last season, and he's blaming that for his lower production. He spent most of the off-season strengthening his lower (and upper) body, but he could be in the best shape of his career and it wouldn't change the fact that the Bears went out and signed Chester Taylor to a 4 year, 12.5 million contract - those aren't backup dollars. Not to pile on,here, but the Bears also selected Harvey Unga in the supplemental draft (it's basically like the 7th round) - Unga is a big boy at 244 lbs and is BYU's all-time leading rusher. I smell a goal-line vulture. Forty's fate is likely to the tune of 230 or so carries, and 40 recepts if he's lucky. Guessing his TD shoot is a crapshoot, but maybe 7 or so sounds right. He didn't find the endzone w/ Cutler at the helm, vs. notching 4 receiving TDs in '08 w/ Orton.

Verdict:  Forte will be no where near as bad as he was last year and he will get more touches in the Martz Offense.  This is a good comeback year for Forte with the offensive line being improved from the garbage it was last year and him getting over the MCL injury.  Not fully ready to declare him a starter but he is on the fringe.

Chester Taylor – Chester Taylor can easily be defined as a professional handcuff.  Always the bridesmaid and never the bride, Chester left Minnesota where his numbers where decreasing each year because of AP getting the ball ALL DAY.  It got to the point where Chester didn’t even get 100 attempts (only 94 in 2009).  2010 may hold rejuvenation for Taylor’s career, he comes into a Bears team that has a new OC, a disappointing season rushing last year, and no to mention he is getting paid too much money (4 yrs. 12.5 mil) to just be a backup.  Forte will start as the main guy but if he falters like he did last year Taylor is going to get a lot more looks.  The odd thing is Taylor’s best skill is his receiving, he was the preferred receiving RB (averaging about 45 receptions per year compared to AP’s 32), but Forte was third in receptions by an RB last year (behind Rice and Hightower) so it looks like these two may battle for touches.

Verdict:  Taylor will be a good handcuff to have this year.  He is going to get plenty more touches than he did in Minnesota and if Matt Forte falters Taylor is getting paid too much to not see more snaps.

WR

Devin Aromashodu - 1)Martz has been spending much of the OTAs teaching Chicago's top 3 WRs (Hester, Knox, and Aromashodu) all three WR positions in his offense. He wants to move Hester around all over the field; that’s code for “I want to make Hester feel special, while I funnel my best WR all of the targets”. Don’t get me wrong, Hester is tight- he’s a solid WR. He’s just not a juggernaut like Aromashodu (finally). 2) Aromashodu is Cutler’s favorite WR on staff. Period. Cutler campaigned to get this kid in the game, and when he did, the numbers were pretty clear. What was Knox(ville)’s biggest game in ’09? (83 yards). Angelo and Lovie need Cutler to produce THIS SEASON – and Cutler will have plenty of say as to who is getting the reps. Plus, Martz plays 3 and 4 WR sets all the time, so it’s not like Aromashoutout won’t be on the field almost every play anyway. This youngster has breakout year stamped right across his forehead. By this time next year we would not be surprised if people are talking about him like they are about Miles Austin. That is the type of talent we think this kid has. Secondaries will be playing lots of deep coverage because of the speed of Knox and Hester. Combine that with Cutlers arm strength, and it stinks royally of sleeper potential. To get him, you will have to go earlier than one might think, because the secret won’t last. I would lock down your starting 3 WRs and then make this Devin your WR 4 or 5 (depending on the size of your league). But definitely check out the ADPs to be sure.

Verdict:  One of the TOP sleepers of the season.  There is so much potential oozing from this kid that after only playing 6 games we have him as the highest rated Bear receiver.   Do not be afraid to take this kid earlier than you think should, the word is getting out about him so people are ready to draft him quick.

Devin Hester – Can this be the year where Hester fights off the nickname Forrest Gump (for his keen ability to run fast in a straight line)? The stats point in the right direction. Hester has increased receptions and yards each year in the league. Mike Martz is also a fan of Devin but he has raved about all the Bears receivers this off-season. What to worry about? New playbook. It took Devin 2 years to get a grip on Ron Turner's vanilla playbook, and as of last season, was still "learning the position". When are ya gonna learn it, pal? Cuz Aromashodu already know it! Martz's schemes are complex, and Hester will have to learn all three WR positions on the field. It’s hard to tell how quick Hester will adapt this new style of offense. He finished 40th last year, and that was with Aromashodu on the bench for most of it. I just don't see the potential that Hester brings - not this season. Get that guy back returning kicks and punts.

Verdict:  Devin Hester’s year after year statistical improvements make him very intriguing but there are so many questions about his ability to handle the Martz Playbook.  If you can get him late then it’s a good pick, but we're talking like beer 10 or 11.

Johnny Knox – It may seem odd to see Johnny Knox as the third best Bears receiver because he is a starter, more reliable than Hester, and a pro bowler (even if it was for KR) but there is plenty of reason to it.  Honestly Knox proved nothing last year, he never had a game of over 100 yds. or over 6 rec. while Aromashodu played only 6 games and had a game of 150 yds and 4 TDs compared to Knox’s 5.  Knox may be the starter but everyone and their mother knows that the Devins are going to see a lot more balls than Johnny.  But Mike Martz’s offense is fit for any of the receivers to bust out so Knox isn’t someone to run away from.

Verdict:  As of now Johnny Knox doesn’t seem like he is going to be fantasy relevant.  He should be considered a “fringe” player which means he may break the cusp into fantasy relevance this season but he hasn’t yet.

TE

Greg Olsen – Greg Olsen is one of the biggest challenges of the 2010 FF season.  All the coaching moves points to Olsen’s production decreasing.  Everyone knows Mike Martz isn’t a big believer in the TE as a receiver.  BUT this case is weird because Greg Olsen is Cutler’s best friend on the team and if Cutler would stick his head out for Aromashodu to get more touches then I’m sure he would do the same for Olsen.  Unfortunately, Olsen’s stock has been ruined of any chance of going up, the Bears now like a roster with 4 TEs (Olsen, Kellen Davis, Brandon Manumaleuna, Dez Clark) and are working on Olsen’s blocking skills.  Last year Olsen led the team in touchdowns (8) and receptions (60) but that is not going to happen this year, especially with Aromashodu in for a full season.  He is not going to be a massive bust like Forte was last year he is just going not going to crack the top ten this year.

Verdict:  Olsen will definitely decrease his stats from last year simply because he is not going to get as many snaps and looks.  We can’t call him a bench player for the whole season but that is where he should start out on fantasy rosters.

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Chicago Bears 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

Chicago Bears 2010 Draft

2010 Chicago Bears Off-season Moves (sourced directly from ESPN.COM)