2009 Fantasy Recap – Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons- 2009 was a classic case of fantasy blue balls for owners of Falcons players (‘cept Roddy).   It wasn’t that they were particularly terrible - 13^th in points scored per game, 16^th in total yards per game, 14^th in pass ypg, and 15^th in rush ypg.  Zzzzzzzzz – it’s just that they were mediocre as a unit, and many were expecting greatness out of Matt Ryan and co. in just his 2^nd season.  

There were a couple of busts, and then a couple of guys whose season numbers were good, but not quite as anticipated. Matt Ryan hit his sophomore slump, Michael Turner  went down to injury, and while Gonzo started off the season on fire, he fizzled in December – more or less sticking it to fantasy teams starting him in the playoffs (he did catch a TD in week 15, though).   Roddy White  managed to remain flat in his production from 2008 to 2009 (he finished 2009 w/ 1153 yards and 11 TDs vs. 1383 yards and 7 TDs in 2008), which is impressive  considering his QB’s struggles with accuracy and INTs.

There are a number of positive take-aways from 2009 from a fantasy perspective.  First, Matt Ryan targeted Tony Gonzalez more than any over QB/TE combo in the NFL at 135 times.  Unfortunately for all the targets he only broke the pylon 6 times but a lot of that had to do with Ryan’s accuracy issues which should improve with experience.  Secondly,  although Turner went down, he maintained his TD per game average in the 10 full games he did play in.  And while 2009 revealed to us a “must” handcuff and his name isn’t Jerious Norwood (who only managed a 3.3 YPC in his limited touches).  No, it was Jason Snelling who proved worthy in Turner’s absence with his 4.3 YPC average.  And finally, Roddy White is now ensconced among the NFL’s elite WRs having strung together a 3^rd consecutive top 15 WR fantasy season. 

Expectations were high for this time, and they simply were not met, but don’t let that divert your attention from the dirty birds in 2010.  Keep reading….

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Atlanta Falcons 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

The keys (aka coaches) to this offense are held by two Mikes – head coach Smith and OC Mularkey, and they’ve shown us that if you are one to just lean on last year’s behavior to paint the picture going forward, you’re going to get burned...  

2009 – 570 pass attempts (7^th)  and 451 rush attempts  (11^th )   

2008 – 434 pass attempts (29^th) and 560 rushing attempts (2^nd)

Hmmmm.  I get that they kept Ryan’s attempts low in his rookie season in 2008, but look that dramatic increase in pass attempts in 2009.   True, they had a very difficult schedule in 2009 compared w/ 2008, and yes, Michael Turner went down, but they didn’t run any less in the final 6-7 games when he was down.  I believe that 2008 was the aberration based solely on Ryan being a rookie, and we can expect more of what we saw in 2009 –a nice balance, but leaning toward the air.   I think 2010 is going to play out like many thought 2009 would.  Opposing defenses will have their hands plenty full as Atlanta boasts one of the top 4 most balanced offensive attacks.

AIR:   Matt Ryan WILL snap out of his sophomore slump in 2010.  With Roddy White and Gonzo in tow, it’s difficult not to get excited about Matt Ryan’s potential as a low end QB1 with upside.  Also, Harry Douglas, who went down in training camp in 2009, will be back; his field stretching skills are matched by only a few names in the NFL (DeSean Jackson, Josh Cribbs, Steve Smith Carolina, Robert Meachem).  His speed combined w/ Roddy White, Michael Jenkins in possession, and Tony G is a good mix.

GROUND:  I like Michael Turner’s chances of bouncing back – so much that I anointed him my 2010 Comeback Player of the Year.   Those expecting Turner to return to 2008 prominence might be in for a slight letdown, as Mike Smith FINALLY acknowledged that he must be judicious with number of carries he gives the big fella’.  There’s no point to run Turner into the ground, either, when the team can turn to Jason Snelling for 100-130 carries in relief.   I expect a similar carry count for the Falcons in 2010, which means 275-300 go to Turner.   Only 7 backs in the NFL carried the ball that many times in 2009, and none of them have a nose for the end zone quite like Turner the Burner.

QB

Matt Ryan - Most thought he would come out and perform better than he did, but instead he just perpetuated the ol' "Sophomore Slump" adage.  And given that there is no "3rd year QB breakout" rule (nor is there a legit WR one, either), what are we to make of Ryan in 2010? Let's start with where he went off-track.  Accuracy was a concern as he completed 58% of his passes (down from 61% as a rookie); it was apparent that he was feeling more pressure to deliver in his 2nd season.  He held onto the ball more - he took 2 more sacks in '09 than in '08 but played in basically 3 less games!  Not good.  I would have thought that the presence of Gonzo would have meant more - but it didn't - not in '09 anyway.  Now to the positive... as the Falcons try and preserve Michael Turner, they passed the ball over 100 more times last season - they ranked 7th as a team.  Ryan has weapons - Roddy White should be all-pro, Michael Jenkins is a solid possession guy, and of course Gonzo.  Harry Douglas will also be back in the fold after miss all of the last season and he can stretch the field with his sub 4.4 40 yard dash speed.

Verdict - I like Ryan's chances of bouncing back, but am not prepared to rank him any higher than deep QB1/or high QB2 status. 

RB

 Michael Turner -

So at this time last year, I was telling everyone with at least one workable ear that Turner was gonna bust. Ya know, the whole curse of 370 carries, the fact that their schedule was going from easy in '08 to very difficult in '09, etc. A few of my detractors said "you got lucky he was injured, cuz he was on a roll" Ehhh, hey dumb dumb, part of the reason I thought he was gonna bust was because the likelihood for injury was enormous! Was I lucky? Of course, but we all make our own luck. Turner was averaging 16.94 fantasy points per game before he went down to a high ankle sprain. Yes, he came back too soon and that per game average lowered. His high ankle sprain is fine, and he’s having an eye-popping training camp and off-season. He's averaged a TD per game and 95+ yards since arriving in Atlanta. Are you looking for guys to win your weeks single-handedly? Turner leads the league in 3+ TD games among RBs w/ 3 since 2008 - that's over CJ28, MJD, and AP. I wouldn’t even bump him down from this ranking in PPR leagues, unless you can find a 15 total TD, 1500 total yard guy after this. Don't go off last season's stats, Turner is an un-caged beast.

Jason Snelling - He's a must handcuff for Michael Turner.  We learned last year, that for sure, Jerious Norwood will never be in consistently on 1st or 2nd down.  We also learned that the Atlanta oline can make pretty much any RB dangerous.  4.3 YPC and 4 TDs on 142 carries stepping in for Michael Turner is proof that handcuffing is a great idea in many cases.  30 catches for 259 yards and 1 TD is proof that Snelling could be on the field a lot more this season, even if Turner stays healthy for 16 games. 

Verdict – You land Turner and Smelling on draft day you are in good shape for one of your two RB slots.

Jerious Norwood - He had his shot for featured carries and it didn't happen (when Turner went down).  He's a 3rd down back with blinding speed, but not enough of an edge to get dirty between oline-men.  Leave him on the waiver wire.

Verdict - Norwood is officially not draft-able.

WR

Roddy White - Roddy is entering the prime of his career and Matt Ryan in his 3rd season should only improve his numbers in 2010.  165 targets and only 85 catches?  Not happening again this season.  Ryan struggled w/ consistency and accuracy - both things are normal for a 2nd year signal caller.

Verdict – White finished 6th among WRs in a basic system in 2009, and will be among the top 5 with good health.

Harry Douglas - He was a rookie in 2008 and will most likely go undrafted in fantasy leagues this summer. I think that's a mistake. This kid has lightning speed. He went very early in training camp a year ago to a knee injury, but is back and turning heads - most notably Matt Ryan's - as written up in a recent news breakers on CBSSports.com. Roddy White owners should take a late round flier on this kid as insurance (if you can afford the roster room).

Michael Jenkins - Here's the pecking order... Roddy White, Tony G, Harry Douglas, Michael Jenkins.  Not enough pass love once you are past Tony G.  Douglas is a speed freak, and could represent as WR 4, but even that is unlikely.

Verdict - With Harry Douglas back from his leg injury, Jenkins' fantasy prospects go from slim to none.

TE

Tony Gonzalez -  With 9 top five fantasy finishes among TEs in the last 10 seasons (including 4 straight), there isn’t much more that needs to be said.  He led all TEs in targets in '09, and I'm shocked that didn't lead to higher finish than 5th among TEs in 2009.  Despite that he’s getting up there in age, I'm actually expecting that Gonzo's numbers lift ever-so-slightly (in the TD column) based on that I'm bullish on Matt Ryan getting over his sophomore slump.  His red-zone prowess/consistency is rivaled only by Antonio Gates, but there is a ton of depth at TE this season, so don’t go too crazy.  You should be able to land Gonzo at a slight discount in 2010 w/ this ranking.

2010 Atlanta Falcons NFL Draft by Round

Click Here for 2010 Atlanta Falcons Off-season movement – provided by ESPN.com

Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Atlanta Falcons - Published July 2009