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Santonio Holmes Profile at Pro Football Reference
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Santonio signed a five-year, $8.11 million contract in '06 that included $5.42 million guaranteed. Holmes is going to start playing harder for that next contract, which should bring him roughly 6-7 times the cash that his first deal did. If Pittsburgh sees a big year (with no further police engagements) out of Holmes in '09, they will sign him to an extension before his final year of this contract. Holmes will play accordingly. His contract situation helps his fantasy value in 2009.
2009 - $700,000
2010 - $755,000
2011 - Free Agent
The third year WR breakout rule does not exist. It never did. Santonio Holmes is just more proof to pile on to this fact.
His targets went up, so did his receptions, but his yards and TDs suffered, and obviously, so did his fantasy points. Why? Who knows? Who cares? If you are basing your draft strategy for WRs on that queerball 3rd year WR breakout theory, you are a bottom feeder. You may want to close the browser window; you just might be a lost cause. Hang in there, though, we believe in you.

Holmes left Ohio State University one year early for the NFL draft and it paid. He joined a team in need of a deep threat to complement their brute of a possession receiver, Hines Ward. Holmes has solid speed but by no means is among the fastest in the league, yet he probably runs one of the best streak routes in the NFL. He is dangerous in the Yard After Catch category as well. Seven of his career 15 TDs (regular season) are outside 30 yards and two of his three post-season TDs are as well. He is another guy that seems faster on the field while running under the ball. He also adjusts near perfectly to a floater in his direction. He’s less than six feet tall and has a slight frame, but can at least take a hit…
Boo YAH!
His biggest problem fantasy-wise is two-fold; the Steelers perennially amazing defense and he plays on a team that prefers to keep the ball on the ground. He and Ben have developed solid rapport, but there are only so many plays from scrimmage in a ball control offense. Even when Willie Parker and rookie brute Rashard Mendenhall went down last season, the Steelers leaned on Minnesota cast-away Mewelde Moore to grind out some tough yards. Their defense keeps the score low on a weekly basis, so the Steel Curtain never really feels the need to put up big numbers and push to score.
Very few guys in the league relish travelling like Santonio.
Not only are his stats dramatically better while road trippin', but he doesn't miss games as a visitor, either. This is something to consider if you happen to be stacked at receiver and find yourself debating who to start.
There is definite cause to be somewhat bullish on Holmes in this year’s fantasy drafts. First and foremost, given his vanilla ’08 numbers, he will fall on pre-draft WR rankings relative to this time last year. The other stat to review is the uptick in his % of targets in ’08. Ben is starting to look for Holmes a higher percentage of his throws as Hines gets on in years. In ’07, Ben targeted Hines on 25.5% of his throws and Holmes 20% (both played 13 games). In 2008, Ben looked Ward’s way 25% and Holmes’s way 23% but Holmes missed a game and Ward played in all 16. That said, we aren’t thrilled with his red-zone stats as he was only targeted eight times in 2008 which resulted in three TDs. Ward remains the go-to guy inside the opposing team’s 20.
It is discouraging to see that Holmes receptions only increased by two this past season, but targets are what matters over the long haul. Let’s also remember that Holmes’s season was disrupted by the embarrassment of being caught with a grip of weed. This undoubtedly played a part in his decreased fantasy production.
Holmes enters the ’09 season as MVP of the Superbowl and will be looking to build on that momentum. He also enters the 2nd to last year of his rookie contract (see below). As already stated, his potential is somewhat limited by Pittsburgh’s stout defense, but his numbers should rise as Ben continues to target him even more in ’09.
Santonio has been pretty healthy over his career and has even bulked up to 201 lbs in order to get off jams at the line and create better separation this year. No worries with this guy.