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He remains the most dependable top tiered RB in fantasy. He doesn't miss games to injury, is a TD manufacturer, and is the center-piece of his offense. As the two 2nd year Offensive tackles, Monroe and Britton, get used to NFL pass blocking, they should also improve (they let Garrard get sacked/rushed too much in 2009) which will translate down to MJD as Garrard has more confidence chucking the ball and keeping defenses' attention balanced. Also, he has a couple of really nice matchups in the 2010 fantasy playoffs (Colts and Skins). Whether a PPR or basic or Dynasty or Keeper or whatever crazy rule scheme you play, MJD is a top 2 RB selection in 2010.
Birth of the Genuine
MJD (not to be confused with the original cold-filtered draft beer in a can, MGD) is the most jaw- dropping and eye-popping running back to watch since Barry Sanders was breaking ankles back in the Silverdome. Detroit fans and Barry loyalists, be clear, we’re not saying MJD is better than Barry – but we think he will be – put that in your pipe and smoke it! Kidding aside, we ARE saying he’s a Christie Canyon droopy good time to watch on a weekly basis, and there hasn’t been anyone like him since. Chris “blinks-a-lot” Collinsworth recently professed about MJD “It’s like trying to tackle a bowling ball, how do you get him down?” Speaking of bowling…..Hey Shawn, is it any fun pretending to be a pin?
Is it too early to begin the MJD/Barry comparisons? Of course, Barry is among the best running backs ever. They don’t really have a ton in common, but the similarities are there. MJD runs with more power and seems to be more of a load while Barry was a bit faster and more elusive. Barry averaged 5.5 yards per touch during his first three years in the league. Thru three seasons, but on 25% less touches, MJD is averaging 5.8 yards per touch. They were the same age when they entered the league (21). Here is an obscure but coincidental stat… both of their yards per rush attempt decreased over each of their first three years.
Fred Taylor has finally been given the pink slip. MJD has yet to carry a full load in the NFL. 10-15 carries per game is night and day to its counterpart 20-24 carries per game. Marion Barber made this transition last year unsuccessfully, but MJD is infinitely more talented in all aspects of the position, so we aren’t sweating that. Nonetheless, there is something to be said about seeing your workload increase 25-30% each week over a 16 game season. The Jags announced early in the off-season that MJD will no longer be returning kicks, so owners need not cringe on every kickoff.
While MJD has never been the featured back, we have seen glimpses of what he can do when given the opportunity:
’08 - In four games of 18+ carries, he toted the ball 84 times for 346 yards and 5 total TDs against great teams (Baltimore, Denver, and two vs. the Colts).
’07 - He had only one game of 18+ carries whereby he ripped Tennessee for 101 yards and a score.
’06 - He carried the ball 18+ times in three games racking up 306 yards on 65 carries and 3 rushing TDs.
With Taylor gone and the increased touches, we think MJD is about to elevate from Bruce Banner to the Incredible Hulk.
Not convinced that MJD is one big round ball of joy on Sundays? The most since Barry retired (prematurely)? Let’s take an inventory of the top RBs since then:
Terrell Davis - Product of the Shanny chop block system at its peak.
Shaun Alexander - He was a vanilla runner that benefited greatly from that Seattle All-Pro offensive line (Walter Jones, Steve Hutchison).
Priest Holmes - Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz. He had the heart of a gnat, and the hip of a geriatric, making his career by punching TD’s in from the one yard line in Vermeil’s RB friendly system.
Marshall Faulk - Very talented, great natural instinct for waiting for plays to develop before hitting the hole, but again, it was Vermeil’s system, and in a dome. Faulk was a stud, don’t get us wrong.
LT - He was fun to watch for a few years, but he is on the downside of his career. He even professed openly that he doesn’t love playing the game. Thanks for the memories, putz.
Edgerrin James - Very productive back, but his legacy was tarnished a little more each time a no-name Colt backup stepped in for him and ripped off 100-yard games (James Mungro, the other Ricky Williams, Dominic Rhodes).
Larry Johnson – Another product of a system and seemed to lose heart and interest after cashing in. There has never been anything electrifying about his game.
There is something more electrifying about MJD, though. Think bowling ball… but with legs.
We absolutely LOVE the human “bowling ball” in ’09 but he does not come without some yellow flags to consider. His QB situation is sketchy with the non-prolific David Garrard under center and then Todd Bouman backing him up. The offensive scheme changes that Dirk Koetter brought in ’07 have resulted in a lower rush YPA in consecutive years, and then there is the unknown of whether MJD can handle a full season of carries. We see AP and Turner’s touches going down some but they both should still be taken ahead of MJD at this point.
Let us not forget that despite splitting carries with Taylor, MJD has produced as a bona-fide starting fantasy RB in the league over his first three years.
Fantasy Point Ranking (6 pt TDs and 1 pt per 10 yards) over his first three years:
’08 – 216 points - ranked 9th
’07 – 166 points - ranked 13th
’06 – 225 points - ranked 7th
His touches will increase dramatically in ’09. It is so tempting to make this “destroyer of pins” the first pick overall. However AP and Turner still have low mileage and are proven league leaders. Make MJD the 2nd RB off your draft board. We will add, if you are sitting there with the 1st overall pick mulling things over, and you’re thirsty and call out for a ”MGD”, to which your league commissioner hears “MJD” and takes that as your official pick, don’t try and take it back – it was meant to be.
No seven-ten splits with this guy. Draft him at will.