Wes Welker shredded the ACL and MCL in his knee just 8 months ago, and the average fantasy baller is drafting him exactly one spot higher than he finished in a basic scoring format?  Wes Welker, as of August 22nd, was the 12th WR being selected on FFcalculator.com's ADP and the 18th WR on FFToolbox.com's ADP - both updated as of this weekend. 

I am in awe of this situation, personally.  Prior to taking the field in the pre-season, Wes Welker was being drafted anywhere from 15 - 24th on ADPs this summer.  After his 2 catch 12 yard performance, that was enough to bump him up to his current place of 12th-18th among WRs?  What am I missing?  I need help.  It's one thing when you stumble upon someone that doesn't understand the severity of an ACL injury, and you have to explain it to him/her; it's quite another when masses of people are seemingly oblivious.  So maybe I'm off on this one?  I don't know, here's what I came up with...

If you know of any other WRs who have recovered from ACL injuries, please email me and I will look up the stats and include them here - these are what a friend of mine and I could come up with.  So let's take a look further at the numbers.  At a glance, they are ugly in every situation but for Rice.  Rice didn't appear to be too phased, although I'd like to point out that his injury was week 1 of the previous season and Welker's was week 16 - aka a 4 month difference.  Also, Jerry Rice is super-human, and Wes Welker has yet to prove that trait (but was well on his way, I admit).

Holy Robert Brooks?  Quite the dip from league leading numbers to barely worthy of a WR2. He would retire in 2000 at the ripe age of 30 as his knee was never quite the same and constantly throbbed in pain.

Javon Walker's numbers (and career) took a serious nose-dive after his ACL tear. He did switch QBs from Favre to Jake Plummer, but a quick look at the rest of his career makes it pretty easy to deduce that the huge dip wasn't due to his QB change. 

I'm definitely willing to concede that a good grip of  Joey Galloway and Rocket Ismail's dip is due to going from Warren Moon/Troy Aikman to Quincy Carter  - how much, I suppose we'll never know. Although Rocket Ismail retired after the 2001 season, if that is any indication - he was 32 yo.  It took Joey Galloway 5 seasons to break 1000 yards again after his 2000 season ACL tear. 

Patrick Jeffers career was over after his ACL tear.  He hobbled onto the field the next year, but the numbers are pretty obvious-  he was 28 yo.  He was out of the league the next season. You can go on and blame the QB change from Beuerlein to Weinke for his 2001 numbers, and I'll stick w/ the ACL tear as the reason, deal?

Marcus Robinson broke out in his 2nd season (further proof of no 3rd WR breakout theory rule) in 2000, and in his 3rd season, he tore his ACL/MCL, and never cracked the 1000 yard mark again in his career. 

Michael Westbrook played in 25 more NFL games post-ACL, and found the end zone exactly 3 times in that span - a far cry from his pre-ACL TD per game count.

Look, I think Wes Welker is better than all but maybe 3 names on the above list of ACL tear sufferors (is that a word?) above.  I don't think he will be the guy whose career ends from this.  He's already defied crazy odds to get to where he is today.   However, his numbers are taking a big dip this season, and if they don't it will be the first time in NFL history that a WR tore his ACL and MCL (in week 16 no less)  in the previous season and came back to maintain production.  Why would you gamble on that?  That's like taking the Browns as your pick to win the Super Bowl and not taking the odds that go along with it.

Upside? Really, fool?

Someone said earlier today that they thought it was the worth the upside.  Knee swelling is not upside, and Welker can't lean on his 5'9" frame in the red zone if if his knee isn't feeling up to it in week 7.  Welker's contract is up after 2011, and it's no secret that he's been angling for an extension since last season.  The Patriots still have Brady and Moss to deal with; that's a mess for another article.  The bottom line... here is a list of guys ranked 12th or lower among WRs that I'd easily prefer over Welker no matter the scoring format:  Hakeem Nicks, Mike Sims-Walker, Mike Wallace, Terrell Owens, Chad Ochocinco, Michael Crabtree, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox (he's actually outside most people's 25 but he's a better option than Welker), Anquan Boldin, Malcom Floyd, Steve Smith Carolina, and Hines Ward.

Verdict:

I've currently got Welker ranked at 26th among WRs, and I was talked into that.  I have been known to harbor an opinion or two, and I'm actually giving in on this.  I had him down in the mid-30's prior to this weekend.  He won't be on my team.  Julian Edelman is solid, and the Patriots don't skip much of a beat by putting him in Welker's place.  If Belichick and the rest of the Patriots brass have a clue (and they do) they will limit Welker's reps in 2010 to minimize his risk.  With minimized reps, come minimized targets, and minimized numbers - we aren't talking rocket science, here.  Do yourself a favor, and let some other chump in your league invest a 3-4th rounder in Welker.  I know, my pompousness will inevitably annoy some of you (ie the ones who already had a draft and invested high in him), hell, I've already received one piece of hate-mail from my profile write up on Welker - which basically prompted this piece.  Thanks, Don - why haven't I heard from you?  You have a personal invite from me to join a league, just as long as you promise to blow a 4th rounder on Wes.  Easy money!   - Tenny Stegman.