Talk to me, Goose

Chris Harris, of ESPN.com fame, came out with a piece lickity split upon hearing the news of TO inking a deal w/ everybody’s favorite dysfunctional franchise, the Cincinnati Bungals.  In it, he wrote that TO, despite signing with a club with a strong QB in Carson Palmer, is still not inside his top 50.   Huh?  I have much L & R for Chris Harris.  He actually knows his FF, unlike his "special" side-kick, the Talentless Mrs. Roto.  If you do the opposite of Matt Barry, you are typically in good shape.  But I digress… TO not inside your top 50, eh, Chris?  I don’t get it.  It makes no sense.  The season (2005) that TO spazzed out and got himself clipped from the Eagles mid-season, he played 7 games and still finished inside the top 50 – 32^nd among WRs, actually.  And really, that is a misleading stat, because his fantasy PPG was el numero uno in the league – for seven games. 

The Extreme

TO evokes more response – toxic or otherwise, than any other NFL player in the history of the sport, and for good reason.  Hell, a FF site that I was involved with last season, had his player profile image drawn up as a soft-serve pile of poo.  True story; we paid a graphic designer to craft TO’s likeness around a steaming pile of dung-  just to hammer our stance on the guy as clear as possible.  Guess who came up with that little diddy?  Uh huh.  And it wasn’t as much about his personality (ok fine, that had a lot to do with it), but it had as much to do w/ the fact that we knew TO wouldn’t do much with a QB named Trent Edwards… or Harvard’s Ryan Fitzpatrick

I don’t need to like a guy to hop on his fantasy bandwagon.  No, I’m a stat guy.  A whore, if you will.  I’d draft JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf as my backup, Travis Henry, Larry Johnson, Roy Williams, Plaxico Burress, and TO – if I thought that collection of A+ personalities would put me in the best position to win a championship (and assuming they were all not in prison).  I draw the line at Michael Vick, though.  I have four dogs, and my fiance' would dump me (rightfully so).

The point is, my facebook friend Chris Harris, was a bit too quick to the presses with his piece, and I fear his expert status will steer fantasy nation away from real value on draft day, and here’s why:

Statistically Speaking

Let’s start with the obvious concern about TO; his age.  He’s 36 years old.  That’s up there in age, I don’t care what position you are talking about.  So let’s look at some other 36+ year old WRs who have produced:

Holy Rice! And Charlie Joiner, like a fine bottle of red zin, got better with age! 

Go ahead and google “best all-time Wide Receivers” and you might be able to find one top ten list without TO’s name on it, and that author would have no credibility at all.  Say what you want about the TO's glowing personality; he’s one of the best WRs to ever lace up a pair of cleats.  If you are planning a top ten WORST teammates in NFL history list, please drop me a line and I’ll be the first to nominate TO to it.  This isn’t a piece trying to convince you to sign the guy to an NFL franchise.   And if you have principles when it comes to assembling your fantasy team, all I can say is… you are in the wrong hobby.  Ever read the book “Pros and Cons”?  I did – it’s not pretty, but I got over it. 

You will NOT find Jimmy Smith, Charlie Joiner, Isaac Bruce, or James Lofton on too many top ten greatest WRs list, though.   The lowest guy on the above list (ie Joiner at 114 fantasy pts) would have finished 27^th in the league in fantasy points in 2009.  TO blows away each name on the above list (besides Jerry Rice) in all things wide receiver... and  work ethic.

Offensive Theories

Chris Harris seemed concerned as much with the Bengals offensive plans for 2010, as he did TO’s age and penchant for acting out.  Quasi-valid point #1, so let's explore that.  The Bengals did not pass the ball too much in 2009.  The chance they took with Cedric Benson certainly paid off, and they rode that horse for all it was worth.  505 team rush attempts was 4^th most in the NFL, while their pass attempts were low at 477 (27^th in the NFL).  If you don’t think that this can change and you happen to be one of those cats that just reads last year’s stats blindly for your 2010 projections, then let me save you time; you should quit reading now (and I’ll be waving to you in your league cellar in about 15-20 weeks). 

The Bengals attempted more passes in 2008 (513 for 16^th in the NFL) with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center than they did in 2009.   In 2007, with a healthy Palmer, they attempted 575 passes (8^th in the NFL).  Let me run a little theory I’m working on by you to get your pulse… what if, now I’m just saying “what if” here, so calm down.  But what if Marvin Lewis designed the playbook in 2009 to bring Carson Palmer back slowly from the elbow injury that ended his 2008 season after just 4 games.  It’s worth noting, that, after suffering this injury, doctors weren’t even sure that Palmer would play in 2009.  Palmer, though, ever the pro, rehabbed like a madman to be ready for 2009, and even refused surgery in the process.    

You cwazy, man, you cwaaaazy

So let’s assume I’m off my mother-friggin rocker.  There’s no way the Bengals kept their passing game low profile so that they could bring their $118 million dollar QB back slowly from a career-threatening injury, but instead, are actually committed to grounding and pounding the football ala the Carolina Panthers.  Then how come they went out and blew a first round draft pick on a receiving tight end (Jermaine Gresham), signed Antonio Bryant to a $24 million ($8 mill of which is guaranteed) contract, and then risked complete nuclear locker-room fallout by inking up a TO?  Furthermore, they had a banger in Larry Johnson, and they let him go without a 2^nd thought, despite that he looked good (4.4 YPC) in his limited touches.  Are ya gonna sit there and sell me on that the Bengals are going to run the football another 505 times with Benson and Bernard Scott (and Brian Leonard - lol), while leaving Ocho, Bryant, Gresham, and TO to brawl for the scraps of the remaining playbook?  My ass.  My ass in a sling. 

Verdict:

TO is not your typical WR; not even really close.  I won’t bother comparing him to Jerry Rice, but I don’t have to, to prove that TO is not only going to finish inside the top 50, but will finish closer to the Top 5 (I offered Chris Harris a wager on this, and I have yet to hear back).  Those of you that think the guy’s skills are eroded to the extent that he’s not worth WR2 value on draft day are gonna find out the hard way that you are wrong.  Forget that Ochocinco has been quoted as saying he plans to take a “back seat” to TO as the 2^nd receiving option (I don’t necessarily believe that, but there will be plenty to go around). 

In 2009 with Buffalo, TO finished 27^th among WRs with Trent Edwards as his QB.  The year before that, he finished 10^th overall on Dallas, and this was playing 3 games with Brad Johnson, who was just flat awful.  TO may as well have not played in those three games (he had 100 yards receiving combined).  Furthermore, 2008 was the season where, you may recall, all of the locker-room strife where TO accused Witten and Romo of calling their own plays?  The 10^th place finish was not due to his age. 

I’m drafting me-O some TO after about 20 WRs are gone.  The risk with the pick is similar to that of any other team with no legitimate backup QB… Palmer.  If Palmer goes down, stick a fork in TO (and Ocho).  JT O’sullivan is garbage.  But if Palmer makes it all 16 games, this team is going to be chucking the ball A LOT more than they were in 2009.  Bank on that.  They can’t hand the ball off to Cedric Benson 350 times. It’s not an option and Marvin Lewis knows it.  It’s why a team, known for their cheap-assed-ness, went out and dropped many millions of dollars revamping their pass-catching corps.