1st Two Rounds - FFArmory
Prelude: Drafting for Value
We have to kick this piece off with a little Fantasy 101 as it is essential to understanding the next sections and also drafting effectively. Basically, don't just look at which guy can put the most points on the board as you build the core of your team in the draft. QBs score more than RBs, RBs more than WRs, and Matt Leinart scores more than us all. Assuming a basic 10-man league, you have to look at your projected point differentials of what is left on the board relative to the 10th best projected QB, the 20th best RB, and 30th best WR, and then make your move. A RB on the board that is projected to put up 190 pts is not necessarily better than a WR projected to put up 140. What is the difference between that 190 pt RB and the 20th RB on your cheat sheet? Compare that with the difference between the 130 pt WR and the 30th WR on your list. There are, of course, dozens of other factors to consider when on the clock, just don't automatically go for the pts. Ready?
Building a Better Draft
The Sears Tower was not built in a day (but its name changed in one) and your fantasy football prowess won't be, either. Downloading our draft kit and reviewing our rankings will not guarantee your success, but it's a step in the right direction. You must also know how to draft and be playing for value in every round. How many RBs/WRs/QBs/TEs are off the board relative to your needs when your number is called? Are you drafting near the corner? What does the guy on the corner need? Who is the new OC for the Seahawks and what are his tendencies? Do you know the playoff schedule (weeks 14-16) of the guy you are about to draft? We could go on for days, and with this site, we plan to.
RBBC
**We assume a 10-team league with a basic scoring format**
Every-down RBs are an endangered species. Teams are moving to Running-Back-By-Committees (RBBC) en-masse due to the increasing size and strength of defensemen; RBs are no longer holding up. *Only 10 RBs have managed to carry the ball 300+ times in three consecutive years since 1998. After the first 7 RBs are off the board, you start to get into the high-mileage, unproven, or RBBC guys.
Carries are down 10% over the last 2 seasons compared with the previous 3. Check it:
The Top 20 Fantasy RBs from 2004-2008:
- 2004-2006 = 19.0 carries per game
- 2007-2008 = 17.1 carries per game
RB point differentials among the top 20 RBs are also down in the same time period.
Avg. Point Differential Per Season Between the 1st and 20th Best RB 2004-2008:
- 2004-2006 = 195 per season
- 2007-2008 = 132 per season
With shrinking carries and point differentials, a case is already being made to think twice about grabbing two RBs in the first couple of rounds.
Let's be clear, we're not asking you to pass on any of the full-time RBs within the first 7 picks of your draft. Adrian Peterson, MJD, LT, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, and Matt Forte are all no-brainers for the 2009 season. After that, it's time to start drafting for value. Let's set aside the RBBC trend for a moment and consider this:
The Last Five - 2004-2008:
- The avg. point differential of the top 8th-20th RBs = 55 fantasy points
- The avg. point differential of the top 1st-30th WRs = 118 fantasy points.
So you are sitting there with the 8th pick; can you justify grabbing the 8th and 9th projected RBs when the differential between them both and the 19th and 20th RBs is around 55 pts on the year? Can you afford to let Andre Johnson or Larry Fitz slip to one of the guys that's sitting on Slaton or MJD?
Illustrated Statistics
All of the season projections we reference below are courtesy of Sports Illustrated from 2004-2008. The take-away from this should not be that they are way off on their projections, but instead, stay focused on the trends between RBs and WRs. Fantasy mags and sites are always going to miss on their projections. We can't control when Steven Jackson's knee is gonna give out.
So let's look at some projections vs. actual numbers for RBs and WRs over the last 5 years:
2004-2008:
- The difference between the top 10 projected WRs and the actual top 10 WRs is 352 fantasy points total, while for RBs the difference is 586 making it 37% easier to predict WR value overall.
- 68% of the top 10 projected RBs finished inside the top 20. *That number turns into 16% if you remove the top 7 projected RBs from each season.
- 76% of the top 10 projected WRs finished inside the top 30.
- 40% of the top 10 projected RBs finished in the top 10 ***that number shrinks to 8% when you peel out the top 7 projected RBs.
- 48% of the top 10 projected WRs finished in the top 10.
- And finally, 28% of the top 10 RBs from '04-'08 seasons were originally projected to finish outside of the top 20.
If you are passing on Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, Greg Jennings or Steve Smith in the first few rounds, you are watching the best value sail right out the door. The numbers aren't as compelling for QBs, but it's worth noting that Peyton Manning has been the most consistent fantasy producer of any positions over the last 10 seasons (finished outside the top 5 for his position only one time). Drew Brees has finished in the top 3 since arriving in New Orleans in 2006. So locking one of those beasts up in first couple rounds goes without saying. With a 28% shot to land a top 10 RB after 20 RBs are gone (per above), you are doing yourself a disservice by not thinking long and hard about diversifying early.
