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about 1 year ago

Op Ed

08.25.10

Drafting the QB/WR Combo?

QB WR Combos - Can you win?

Is it a good idea?  By Stegman

 

Below are 38 QB/WR1 combos color coded yellow , green, and red.  They are the top QB1/WR1 combos over the last 15 or so years.  If we have left any off that you would like to see calculated, please drop me line.  We are in no way purposely leaving key combos off, but these are the ones that stood out to us.  For example, we could have included Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson, however, that would have skewed the data even more negatively, and to us, that is not a real legitimate QB1/WR1 combo that you would go out of your way to obtain.  Nonetheless, this data paints a pretty clear picture....

 

We used 22 fantasy points as the milestone for QBs between yellow and green.  22 fantasy PPG would have put a QB in the top 5 in 2009.

We used 11 fantasy points as the milestone for WRs between yellow and green.  11 or more PPG puts a receiver among the top 10 in 2009.

If neither guy reached his milestone in a given fantasy playoff week, we assigned them both a red.

 

  • Green/Green combo means that the QB and WR both achieved their milestone (22 QB and 11 WR) significantly increasing your chances of advancing to the Super Bowl.
  • Green/Yellow - means that at least one of the combo met their milestone. 
  • Yellow/Yellow - means that neither guy met their milestone but their combined score was over 22 fantasy points (ie the milestone of the QB only).
  • Red/Red is-a-no-gooooood.  Season killer, more or less, unless the rest of your team went ballistic.  Your QB/WR combo scored below 22 points

 

Verdict:

From this 38 sets of QB1/WR1 fantasy playoff combo data-set, we are looking at the following:

  • 19 fantasy playoff sets had at least 1 Red/Red combination in a fantasy playoff week.
  • 8 fantasy playoff sets had at least 1 Yellow/Yellow combination in a fantasy playoff week.
  • 11 fantasy playoff sets had all Green/Green (4 times) or at least all Green/Yellow combinations  (7 times)

I don't like the strategy.  19 out of 38 times it kills you at some point during the playoffs with a red/red.  Another 8 times in the playoffs your two guys are under-performing.  Only 11 of 38 fantasy playoff sets did it really not matter at all that you were handcuffing, andn of those, 4 times does the strategy actually paid huge dividends (Schaub/Johnson in 2009, Young/Rice in 1994, Favre/Freeman in 1994, and Rivers/Jackson in 2008).  


What this data only partially captures is all of the additional risk besides just bad performance out of one or the other.  What about weather?  One rain-storm out of nowhere can work to take out both of your guys in one Sunday afternoon in December.  How about injury?  Matt Schaub goes down in the first quarter, now how's your first round Andre Johnson looking?  Randy Moss's numbers took a noticeable dip ballin' with Matt Cassel in 2008.


I have never liked the strategy, this represents the first time I've actually taken a deep look at the data.  It's a fine strategy for the regular season - the weeks the combo go off is a near immediate win, but there is too much inter-dependency required for three straight weeks in the fantasy post-season to make it work for you season-in/season out.  If you are dying to draft a same team combo like this, go ahead and do it for the regular season,  but then make sure you trade one or the other before the deadline - or at least that would be my advice.

 

year week QB fant pts name fant pts
2009 14 Peyton Manning 26.7 Reggie Wayne 4.3
2009 15 Peyton manning 31.1 Reggie Wayne 19.2
2009 16 Peyton Manning 9.6 Reggie Wayne 3.3
           
2008 14 Peyton Manning 25.9 Reggie Wayne 4.8
2008 15 Peyton manning 20.2 Reggie Wayne 10.4
2008 16 Peyton Manning 30.3 Reggie Wayne 16.8
           
2007 14 Peyton Manning 28.5 Marvin Harrison DNP
2007 15 Peyton manning 18.1 Marvin Harrison DNP
2007 16 Peyton Manning 27.5 Marvin Harrison DNP
           
2006 14 Peyton Manning 21.65 Marvin Harrison 10.1
2006 15 Peyton manning 31.1 Marvin Harrison 26.6
2006 16 Peyton Manning 22.25 Marvin Harrison 23.2
           
2005 14 Peyton Manning 24.7 Marvin Harrison 25.7
2005 15 Peyton manning 20.8 Marvin Harrison 13.5
2005 16 Peyton Manning 5.8 Marvin Harrison 0
           
2004 14 Peyton Manning 22.6 Marvin Harrison 8.6
2004 15 Peyton manning 16.25 Marvin Harrison 13.3
2004 16 Peyton Manning 27.15 Marvin Harrison 11.1
year Week QB FP Name FP
2009 14 Matt Schaub 26.1 Andre Johnson 31.3
2009 15 Matt Schaub 22.1 Andre Johnson 19.6
2009 16 Matt Schaub 22 Andre Johnson 13.1
           
2008 14 Matt Schaub 28.7 Andre Johnson 11.5
2008 15 Matt Schaub 18.9 Andre Johnson 26.7
2008 16 Matt Schaub 13.8 Andre Johnson 26.8






2009 14 Aaron Rodgers 8.4 Greg Jennings 5.6
2009 15 Aaron Rodgers 39.4 Greg Jennings 17.8
2009 16 Aaron Rodgers 16.8 Greg Jennings 11.1
           
2008 14 Aaron Rodgers 23.2 Greg Jennings 7.4
2008 15 Aaron Rodgers 20.1 Greg Jennings 8.2
2008 16 Aaron Rodgers 20.4 Greg Jennings 9.8






2009 14 Drew Brees 26.6 Marques Colston 11.4
2009 15 Drew Brees 19.7 Marques Colston 8.6
2009 16 Drew Brees 16.9 Marques Colston 7.7
           
2008 14 Drew Brees 19.5 Marques Colston 2.4
2008 15 Drew Brees 19.7 Marques Colston 14.4
2008 16 Drew Brees 25.3 Marques Colston 21.9
           
2007 14 Drew Brees 28.3 Marques Colston 21.2
2007 15 Drew Brees 23.6 Marques Colston 17.4
2007 16 Drew Brees 14.4 Marques Colston 1.6
year Week QB FP Name FP
2009 14 Tom Brady 13.4 Randy Moss 1.6
2009 15 Tom Brady 9.5 Randy Moss 13
2009 16 Tom Brady 29.8 Randy Moss 22.5
           
2007 14 Tom Brady 36.4 Randy Moss 25.5
2007 15 Tom Brady 7.9 Randy Moss 7.9
2007 16 Tom Brady 23.9 Randy Moss 17






2009 14 Phillip Rivers 17.7 Vincent Jackson 12
2009 15 Phillip Rivers 27.4 Vincent Jackson 22.8
2009 16 Phillip Rivers 21.1 Vincent Jackson 7
           
2008 14 Phillip Rivers 24.6 Vincent Jackson 20.8
2008 15 Phillip Rivers 26.5 Vincent Jackson 14.9
2008 16 Phillip Rivers 30.1 Vincent Jackson 11.1
year Week QB FP Name FP
2009 14 Kurt Warner 8.9 Larry Fitzgerald 2.2
2009 15 Kurt Warner 19.5 Larry Fitzgerald 9.6
2009 16 Kurt Warner 24.7 Larry Fitzgerald 10.8
           
2008 14 Kurt Warner 17.8 Larry Fitzgerald 13.3
2008 15 Kurt Warner 17.5 Larry Fitzgerald 5.2
2008 16 Kurt Warner 1.5 Larry Fitzgerald 16.1
           
2007 14 Kurt Warner 28.9 Larry Fitzgerald 13.9
2007 15 Kurt Warner 23.7 Larry Fitzgerald 8.7
2007 16 Kurt Warner 30.1 Larry Fitzgerald 7.2






2008 14 Tony Romo 15.1 Terrell Owens 9.2
2008 15 Tony Romo 20.9 Terrell Owens 3.8
2008 16 Tony Romo 20.8 Terrell Owens 12.3
           
2007 14 Tony Romo 24.6 Terrell Owens 2.1
2007 15 Tony Romo 12.3 Terrell Owens 3.7
2007 16 Tony Romo 18.2 Terrell Owens 10.8
           
2009 14 Tony Romo 20.4 Miles Austin 13.1
2009 15 Tony Romo 21.7 Miles Austin 19.9
2009 16 Tony Romo 18.2 Miles Austin 9.2






2004 14 Daunte Culpepper 20.7 Randy Moss 16.4
2004 15 Daunte Culpepper 38.4 Randy Moss 16.2
2004 16 Daunte Culpepper 28.35 Randy Moss 9
           
2003 14 Daunte Culpepper 26.4 Randy Moss 25.3
2003 15 Daunte Culpepper 16.7 Randy Moss 15.3
2003 16 Daunte Culpepper 26.6 Randy Moss 23.1
           
2002 14 Daunte Culpepper 19.4 Randy Moss 8.5
2002 15 Daunte Culpepper 42.9 Randy Moss 23.3
2002 16 Daunte Culpepper 18.9 Randy Moss 11
year Week QB FP Name FP
2009 14 Brett Favre 14.4 Sidney Rice 9.9
2009 15 Brett Favre 11.2 Sidney Rice 6.9
2009 16 Brett Favre 24.1 Sidney Rice 11.6
           
1994 14 Brett Favre 31.5 Sterling Sharpe 17.5
1994 15 Brett Favre 27.3 Sterling Sharpe 20.6
1994 16 Brett Favre 25.25 Sterling Sharpe 11.3
           
1993 14 Brett Favre 35.1 Sterling Sharpe 17.4
1993 15 Brett Favre 8 Sterling Sharpe 6.5
1993 16 Brett Favre 23.2 Sterling Sharpe 16.6
           
1997 14 Brett Favre 15.5 Antonio Freeman 8.5
1997 15 Brett Favre 23.3 Antonio Freeman 7.3
1997 16 Brett Favre 26.3 Antonio Freeman 28.6
           
1998 14 Brett Favre 22.7 Antonio Freeman DNP
1998 15 Brett Favre 23.3 Antonio Freeman 16.3
1998 16 Brett Favre 29.55 Antonio Freeman 30.6
year Week QB FP Name FP
1994 14 Steve Young 40.3 Jerry Rice 15.2
1994 15 Steve Young 23.6 Jerry Rice 14.4
1994 16 Steve Young 30.6 Jerry Rice 18.1
           
1993 14 Steve Young 11.05 Jerry Rice 8.2
1993 15 Steve Young 25 Jerry Rice 10.5
1993 16 Steve Young 35.6 Jerry Rice 19.2
           
1995 14 Steve Young 13.45 Jerry Rice 3.2
1995 15 Steve Young 32.9 Jerry Rice 12.1
1995 16 Steve Young 40.05 Jerry Rice 40.9
year Week QB FP Name FP
2000 14 Jeff Garcia 26.05 Terrell Owens 9.3
2000 15 Jeff Garcia 39.45 Terrell Owens 18.9
2000 16 Jeff Garcia 29.6 Terrell Owens 34.3
           
2001 14 Jeff Garcia 9.85 Terrell Owens 4.3
2001 15 Jeff Garcia 12.7 Terrell Owens 12.4
2001 16 Jeff Garcia 20.05 Terrell Owens 9.3
           
2002 14 Jeff Garcia 36.8 Terrell Owens 24.3
2002 15 Jeff Garcia 15 Terrell Owens 13.5
2002 16 Jeff Garcia 17.3 Terrell Owens  DNP
           
2003 14 Jeff Garcia 43.8 Terrell Owens 21.2
2003 15 Jeff Garcia 36.3 Terrell Owens 18.7
2003 16 Jeff Garcia 20.65 Terrell Owens 2
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