Drafting the QB/WR Combo?

Is it a good idea? By Stegman
Below are 38 QB/WR1 combos color coded yellow , green, and red. They are the top QB1/WR1 combos over the last 15 or so years. If we have left any off that you would like to see calculated, please drop me line. We are in no way purposely leaving key combos off, but these are the ones that stood out to us. For example, we could have included Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson, however, that would have skewed the data even more negatively, and to us, that is not a real legitimate QB1/WR1 combo that you would go out of your way to obtain. Nonetheless, this data paints a pretty clear picture....
We used 22 fantasy points as the milestone for QBs between yellow and green. 22 fantasy PPG would have put a QB in the top 5 in 2009.
We used 11 fantasy points as the milestone for WRs between yellow and green. 11 or more PPG puts a receiver among the top 10 in 2009.
If neither guy reached his milestone in a given fantasy playoff week, we assigned them both a red.
- Green/Green combo means that the QB and WR both achieved their milestone (22 QB and 11 WR) significantly increasing your chances of advancing to the Super Bowl.
- Green/Yellow - means that at least one of the combo met their milestone.
- Yellow/Yellow - means that neither guy met their milestone but their combined score was over 22 fantasy points (ie the milestone of the QB only).
- Red/Red is-a-no-gooooood. Season killer, more or less, unless the rest of your team went ballistic. Your QB/WR combo scored below 22 points.
Verdict:
From this 38 sets of QB1/WR1 fantasy playoff combo data-set, we are looking at the following:
- 19 fantasy playoff sets had at least 1 Red/Red combination in a fantasy playoff week.
- 8 fantasy playoff sets had at least 1 Yellow/Yellow combination in a fantasy playoff week.
- 11 fantasy playoff sets had all Green/Green (4 times) or at least all Green/Yellow combinations (7 times)
I don't like the strategy. 19 out of 38 times it kills you at some point during the playoffs with a red/red. Another 8 times in the playoffs your two guys are under-performing. Only 11 of 38 fantasy playoff sets did it really not matter at all that you were handcuffing, andn of those, 4 times does the strategy actually paid huge dividends (Schaub/Johnson in 2009, Young/Rice in 1994, Favre/Freeman in 1994, and Rivers/Jackson in 2008).
What this data only partially captures is all of the additional risk besides just bad performance out of one or the other. What about weather? One rain-storm out of nowhere can work to take out both of your guys in one Sunday afternoon in December. How about injury? Matt Schaub goes down in the first quarter, now how's your first round Andre Johnson looking? Randy Moss's numbers took a noticeable dip ballin' with Matt Cassel in 2008.
I have never liked the strategy, this represents the first time I've actually taken a deep look at the data. It's a fine strategy for the regular season - the weeks the combo go off is a near immediate win, but there is too much inter-dependency required for three straight weeks in the fantasy post-season to make it work for you season-in/season out. If you are dying to draft a same team combo like this, go ahead and do it for the regular season, but then make sure you trade one or the other before the deadline - or at least that would be my advice.
| year | week | QB | fant pts | name | fant pts |
| 2009 | 14 | Peyton Manning | 26.7 | Reggie Wayne | 4.3 |
| 2009 | 15 | Peyton manning | 31.1 | Reggie Wayne | 19.2 |
| 2009 | 16 | Peyton Manning | 9.6 | Reggie Wayne | 3.3 |
| 2008 | 14 | Peyton Manning | 25.9 | Reggie Wayne | 4.8 |
| 2008 | 15 | Peyton manning | 20.2 | Reggie Wayne | 10.4 |
| 2008 | 16 | Peyton Manning | 30.3 | Reggie Wayne | 16.8 |
| 2007 | 14 | Peyton Manning | 28.5 | Marvin Harrison | DNP |
| 2007 | 15 | Peyton manning | 18.1 | Marvin Harrison | DNP |
| 2007 | 16 | Peyton Manning | 27.5 | Marvin Harrison | DNP |
| 2006 | 14 | Peyton Manning | 21.65 | Marvin Harrison | 10.1 |
| 2006 | 15 | Peyton manning | 31.1 | Marvin Harrison | 26.6 |
| 2006 | 16 | Peyton Manning | 22.25 | Marvin Harrison | 23.2 |
| 2005 | 14 | Peyton Manning | 24.7 | Marvin Harrison | 25.7 |
| 2005 | 15 | Peyton manning | 20.8 | Marvin Harrison | 13.5 |
| 2005 | 16 | Peyton Manning | 5.8 | Marvin Harrison | 0 |
| 2004 | 14 | Peyton Manning | 22.6 | Marvin Harrison | 8.6 |
| 2004 | 15 | Peyton manning | 16.25 | Marvin Harrison | 13.3 |
| 2004 | 16 | Peyton Manning | 27.15 | Marvin Harrison | 11.1 |
| year | Week | QB | FP | Name | FP |
| 2009 | 14 | Matt Schaub | 26.1 | Andre Johnson | 31.3 |
| 2009 | 15 | Matt Schaub | 22.1 | Andre Johnson | 19.6 |
| 2009 | 16 | Matt Schaub | 22 | Andre Johnson | 13.1 |
| 2008 | 14 | Matt Schaub | 28.7 | Andre Johnson | 11.5 |
| 2008 | 15 | Matt Schaub | 18.9 | Andre Johnson | 26.7 |
| 2008 | 16 | Matt Schaub | 13.8 | Andre Johnson | 26.8 |
| 2009 | 14 | Aaron Rodgers | 8.4 | Greg Jennings | 5.6 |
| 2009 | 15 | Aaron Rodgers | 39.4 | Greg Jennings | 17.8 |
| 2009 | 16 | Aaron Rodgers | 16.8 | Greg Jennings | 11.1 |
| 2008 | 14 | Aaron Rodgers | 23.2 | Greg Jennings | 7.4 |
| 2008 | 15 | Aaron Rodgers | 20.1 | Greg Jennings | 8.2 |
| 2008 | 16 | Aaron Rodgers | 20.4 | Greg Jennings | 9.8 |
| 2009 | 14 | Drew Brees | 26.6 | Marques Colston | 11.4 |
| 2009 | 15 | Drew Brees | 19.7 | Marques Colston | 8.6 |
| 2009 | 16 | Drew Brees | 16.9 | Marques Colston | 7.7 |
| 2008 | 14 | Drew Brees | 19.5 | Marques Colston | 2.4 |
| 2008 | 15 | Drew Brees | 19.7 | Marques Colston | 14.4 |
| 2008 | 16 | Drew Brees | 25.3 | Marques Colston | 21.9 |
| 2007 | 14 | Drew Brees | 28.3 | Marques Colston | 21.2 |
| 2007 | 15 | Drew Brees | 23.6 | Marques Colston | 17.4 |
| 2007 | 16 | Drew Brees | 14.4 | Marques Colston | 1.6 |
| year | Week | QB | FP | Name | FP |
| 2009 | 14 | Tom Brady | 13.4 | Randy Moss | 1.6 |
| 2009 | 15 | Tom Brady | 9.5 | Randy Moss | 13 |
| 2009 | 16 | Tom Brady | 29.8 | Randy Moss | 22.5 |
| 2007 | 14 | Tom Brady | 36.4 | Randy Moss | 25.5 |
| 2007 | 15 | Tom Brady | 7.9 | Randy Moss | 7.9 |
| 2007 | 16 | Tom Brady | 23.9 | Randy Moss | 17 |
| 2009 | 14 | Phillip Rivers | 17.7 | Vincent Jackson | 12 |
| 2009 | 15 | Phillip Rivers | 27.4 | Vincent Jackson | 22.8 |
| 2009 | 16 | Phillip Rivers | 21.1 | Vincent Jackson | 7 |
| 2008 | 14 | Phillip Rivers | 24.6 | Vincent Jackson | 20.8 |
| 2008 | 15 | Phillip Rivers | 26.5 | Vincent Jackson | 14.9 |
| 2008 | 16 | Phillip Rivers | 30.1 | Vincent Jackson | 11.1 |
| year | Week | QB | FP | Name | FP |
| 2009 | 14 | Kurt Warner | 8.9 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2.2 |
| 2009 | 15 | Kurt Warner | 19.5 | Larry Fitzgerald | 9.6 |
| 2009 | 16 | Kurt Warner | 24.7 | Larry Fitzgerald | 10.8 |
| 2008 | 14 | Kurt Warner | 17.8 | Larry Fitzgerald | 13.3 |
| 2008 | 15 | Kurt Warner | 17.5 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5.2 |
| 2008 | 16 | Kurt Warner | 1.5 | Larry Fitzgerald | 16.1 |
| 2007 | 14 | Kurt Warner | 28.9 | Larry Fitzgerald | 13.9 |
| 2007 | 15 | Kurt Warner | 23.7 | Larry Fitzgerald | 8.7 |
| 2007 | 16 | Kurt Warner | 30.1 | Larry Fitzgerald | 7.2 |
| 2008 | 14 | Tony Romo | 15.1 | Terrell Owens | 9.2 |
| 2008 | 15 | Tony Romo | 20.9 | Terrell Owens | 3.8 |
| 2008 | 16 | Tony Romo | 20.8 | Terrell Owens | 12.3 |
| 2007 | 14 | Tony Romo | 24.6 | Terrell Owens | 2.1 |
| 2007 | 15 | Tony Romo | 12.3 | Terrell Owens | 3.7 |
| 2007 | 16 | Tony Romo | 18.2 | Terrell Owens | 10.8 |
| 2009 | 14 | Tony Romo | 20.4 | Miles Austin | 13.1 |
| 2009 | 15 | Tony Romo | 21.7 | Miles Austin | 19.9 |
| 2009 | 16 | Tony Romo | 18.2 | Miles Austin | 9.2 |
| 2004 | 14 | Daunte Culpepper | 20.7 | Randy Moss | 16.4 |
| 2004 | 15 | Daunte Culpepper | 38.4 | Randy Moss | 16.2 |
| 2004 | 16 | Daunte Culpepper | 28.35 | Randy Moss | 9 |
| 2003 | 14 | Daunte Culpepper | 26.4 | Randy Moss | 25.3 |
| 2003 | 15 | Daunte Culpepper | 16.7 | Randy Moss | 15.3 |
| 2003 | 16 | Daunte Culpepper | 26.6 | Randy Moss | 23.1 |
| 2002 | 14 | Daunte Culpepper | 19.4 | Randy Moss | 8.5 |
| 2002 | 15 | Daunte Culpepper | 42.9 | Randy Moss | 23.3 |
| 2002 | 16 | Daunte Culpepper | 18.9 | Randy Moss | 11 |
| year | Week | QB | FP | Name | FP |
| 2009 | 14 | Brett Favre | 14.4 | Sidney Rice | 9.9 |
| 2009 | 15 | Brett Favre | 11.2 | Sidney Rice | 6.9 |
| 2009 | 16 | Brett Favre | 24.1 | Sidney Rice | 11.6 |
| 1994 | 14 | Brett Favre | 31.5 | Sterling Sharpe | 17.5 |
| 1994 | 15 | Brett Favre | 27.3 | Sterling Sharpe | 20.6 |
| 1994 | 16 | Brett Favre | 25.25 | Sterling Sharpe | 11.3 |
| 1993 | 14 | Brett Favre | 35.1 | Sterling Sharpe | 17.4 |
| 1993 | 15 | Brett Favre | 8 | Sterling Sharpe | 6.5 |
| 1993 | 16 | Brett Favre | 23.2 | Sterling Sharpe | 16.6 |
| 1997 | 14 | Brett Favre | 15.5 | Antonio Freeman | 8.5 |
| 1997 | 15 | Brett Favre | 23.3 | Antonio Freeman | 7.3 |
| 1997 | 16 | Brett Favre | 26.3 | Antonio Freeman | 28.6 |
| 1998 | 14 | Brett Favre | 22.7 | Antonio Freeman | DNP |
| 1998 | 15 | Brett Favre | 23.3 | Antonio Freeman | 16.3 |
| 1998 | 16 | Brett Favre | 29.55 | Antonio Freeman | 30.6 |
| year | Week | QB | FP | Name | FP |
| 1994 | 14 | Steve Young | 40.3 | Jerry Rice | 15.2 |
| 1994 | 15 | Steve Young | 23.6 | Jerry Rice | 14.4 |
| 1994 | 16 | Steve Young | 30.6 | Jerry Rice | 18.1 |
| 1993 | 14 | Steve Young | 11.05 | Jerry Rice | 8.2 |
| 1993 | 15 | Steve Young | 25 | Jerry Rice | 10.5 |
| 1993 | 16 | Steve Young | 35.6 | Jerry Rice | 19.2 |
| 1995 | 14 | Steve Young | 13.45 | Jerry Rice | 3.2 |
| 1995 | 15 | Steve Young | 32.9 | Jerry Rice | 12.1 |
| 1995 | 16 | Steve Young | 40.05 | Jerry Rice | 40.9 |
| year | Week | QB | FP | Name | FP |
| 2000 | 14 | Jeff Garcia | 26.05 | Terrell Owens | 9.3 |
| 2000 | 15 | Jeff Garcia | 39.45 | Terrell Owens | 18.9 |
| 2000 | 16 | Jeff Garcia | 29.6 | Terrell Owens | 34.3 |
| 2001 | 14 | Jeff Garcia | 9.85 | Terrell Owens | 4.3 |
| 2001 | 15 | Jeff Garcia | 12.7 | Terrell Owens | 12.4 |
| 2001 | 16 | Jeff Garcia | 20.05 | Terrell Owens | 9.3 |
| 2002 | 14 | Jeff Garcia | 36.8 | Terrell Owens | 24.3 |
| 2002 | 15 | Jeff Garcia | 15 | Terrell Owens | 13.5 |
| 2002 | 16 | Jeff Garcia | 17.3 | Terrell Owens | DNP |
| 2003 | 14 | Jeff Garcia | 43.8 | Terrell Owens | 21.2 |
| 2003 | 15 | Jeff Garcia | 36.3 | Terrell Owens | 18.7 |
| 2003 | 16 | Jeff Garcia | 20.65 | Terrell Owens | 2 |









