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over 2 years ago

Op Ed

09.01.09

Handcuffing: Yay or Nay?-FFA

FFArmory.com Handcuff

By Tenny Stegman - PUBLISHED on September 1st, 2009

Play Time

 

Handcuffs are good for two things... and one of 'em is insuring early round investments on fantasy running backs.    The worst thing that can happen to your fantasy team is for one of your starting RBs to go down and have some other team either have a higher pickup ranking than you for that week, or worse, another owner takes a late round flier on a handcuff because you were asleep at the wheel or didn't properly strategize on draft day.  Click here for a list of top handcuffs heading into 2009.

 

*Important* - Knowing when to draft a handcuff is as important as ending up with said handcuff.  Certain guys you have to jump the gun a little early on (Chester Taylor, Jonathan Stewart, and LeSean McCoy) because the safety of having that handcuff is compelling enough to do so.  E.g. - Chester Taylor is a guy, who if AP were to go down, would be running behind a rock solid offensive line (for the rush), a solid QB in Favre, and the easiest swiss-cheesiest schedules in the league.   After you lock up your three RBs, three WRs, a QB and a TE, you have to consider Chester in the 9th round.  Jonathan Stewart may not even last that long, but can you really justify going on him any earlier than that?  The holes won't be as gaping in Carolina this season as their schedule is much more difficult and they will have to pass more.  LeSean McCoy, though, is another guy that if you wait past the 8th-9th round as a Westy owner, you won't be enjoying that insurance. 

 

Some of the other guys, you can easily wait on, but again, do you take the insurance policy?  Or do you take that backup WR with potential.  The following numbers should help you decide.

 

The Big Numbers

 

Since 2000, there have been 13 handcuff RBs who have finished the season in the top 20 overall RB fantasy rankings. 

 

2000

•  Mike Anderson replaced Terrell Davis & Olandis Gary

•  Ahman Green replaced Dorsey Levens

 

2001

•  Shaun Alexander filled in for Ricky Watters

•  Dominic Rhodes filled in for Edgerrin James

 

2003

•  Rudi Johnson filled in for Corey Dillon.

 

2004

•  Willis Mcgahee filled in for the Sperminator aka Travis Henry

 

2005

•  Larry Johnson for Priest Holmes

 

2006  

•  Maurice Jones-Drew for Fred Taylor

•  Ladell Betts for Clinton Portis  

 

2007

•  Ryan Grant filled in for DeShawn Wynn/Brandon Jackson  

•  Earnest Graham filled in for Cadillac Williams

 

 

2008

•  Steve Slaton for Ahman Green

•  Le'Ron McClain filled in for Willis McGahee.

 

 

 

 

Handcuff When It Matters Most

 

To have success handcuffing, your insurance policy doesn't have to finish among the top 20 RBs on the season to justify the investment.  Over the last 9 seasons, eight more handcuffs have produced when it matters most - the fantasy playoffs -and these are above and beyond the above mentioned guys who finished in the top 20 - as many of those guys cranked in the fantasy post-season, too.  The numbers below were all posted during weeks 14-16 of their corresponding year.

 

2001

•  Stacey Mack filled in for the injured Fred Taylor and scoring 56.3 fantasy points in the playoffs or 18.76 per game

 

2003

•  Kevan Barlow filled in for Garrison Hearst in the playoffs and scored 81.5 fantasy points or 27.16 per game.

 

2004  

•  Larry Johnson started two fantasy playoff games filling in for Priest Holmes and scored 51.3 fantasy points or 25.65 per game.

 

2006

•  Ladell Betts scored 63.1 fantasy points in the playoffs or 21.03 fantasy points per game.

 

2007

•  Kenny Watson scored 21 fantasy points in a week 16 contest against the Browns.

 

2008

•  Dominic Rhodes started two games while Joseph Addai was on the pines during the playoffs and scored 38.5 fantasy point or 19.25 per game.

•  Pierre Thomas scored 65.8 fantasy points in the playoffs or 21.93 per game backing up Reggie Bush and Deuce McAlister

•  Tashard Choice started two games in the fantasy playoffs week 14 and week 16 and scored 34.1 fantasy points or 17 points per game.

 

 

Regular Assistance

 

Handcuffs can also chip in random weeks during the regular season.  The RB position is the most brutal in professional sports.  There is a high probability that your RB1/RB2 that cost you a draft pick in the first four rounds will miss time at some point.  Have you ever missed the playoffs by just one win?  Having a good insurance policy could bring you that one win in the regular season games that helps you achieve the playoff berth.  The following guys are above and beyond the above referenced guys.

 

2001  

  • Trung Canidate scored 53.8 fantasy points or 26.9 in his two games backing up Marshall Faulk.

 

2002

  • Lamar Gordon had 26.5 or 13.25 fantasy points in his two games backing up Faulk.  
  • Amos Zeroue had 70.3 in his 4 starts for Jerome Bettis or 17.57 per game.

 

2004   

  • Rueben Droughns only had 10 carries through 4 games but replaced Quentin Griffin as the starter and scored 190 points over the final 12 games or 15.83 per game.
  • Derrick Blaylock started 5 games for the injured Priest Holmes and scored 84 fantasy points or 16.8 per game

 

2007

 

2008

 

 

Handcuff QBs and WRs?

 

The numbers are not as convincing when you consider handcuffing QBs and WRs, but save for maybe one instance (Matt Leinart), these insurance policies won't cost much and also have the potential (WRs that start) to deliver results irrespective of the primary guy going down. Where quality is less important when handcuffing RBs (cuz it's more about the system, offensive line, quality of QB, etc) with WRs and QBs, the quality of talent in a handcuff consideration is much more relevant in weighing when and if it's worth it.

 

WRs

 

The following guys would make good sense to connect to the wrist of your drafted WR studs. 

 

•  Steve Breaston for Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald is the first that comes to mind, but he's going to cost you an early pick based on his '08 numbers so you have to be smart not to go too early. 

•  Joey Galloway would make sense to handcuff to either Randy Moss or Wes Welker, but only late in drafts due to his age. 

•  Drafting Andre Davis on the Texans helped Andre Johnson owners back in 2007, but only a last round flier if you have room would make sense.  

•  Robert Meachem makes a lot of sense to 'cuff to Marques Colston given the fantasy prowess of QB Drew Brees

•  Michael Jenkins is a logical choice if you are sitting on Roddy White and Jenkins is there for you in the 14th or later round.

•  And how about Chris Henry?  He has the skills to start on any NFL team in the league (not necessarily the behavior, though).  He'll cost you because of all of Carson Palmer's chatter about him this off-season.

•  The Chargers' Malcom Floyd is a tall and talented wideout that would flourish if either Chambers or Vincent Jackson were to suffer an injury. 

•  Devin Thomas is a young up and comer and would make sense if you end up with Santana Moss.

 

QBs

 

There are only a handful of QBs worth handcuffing in any year.   With QB handcuffs, so much depends on the quality of WRs.  Guys like Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson have proven that they can make almost any QB fantasy relevant.  Beyond that, there are many seasoned vets that are at the point of their careers where no team is interested in employing them as the main guy (see Jeff Garcia), but they have the all-but-eroded skill-set to enable them to make an impact should their number be called to action.    

 

The two most important QBs worth handcuffing this season are Tom Brady and Kurt Warner.  With Moss and Welker, and Belichick's QB-friendly system, we saw what a guy with no NFL (or much college-Cassel) experience was able to come in and do in '08, so a late rounder on Kevin O'Connell makes sense. 

 

With Boldin, Fitz, Breaston, coach Whisenhunt's prolific WR friendly system, and Kurt's penchant for injury, we would advocate an earlier than normal draft pick (10th -12th round?) on Matt Leinart if you opted for Warner.

 

Other notables worth consideration: 


Jon Kitna is now the backup in Dallas, and should Tony Romo go down, he has proven over the years to be able to step in and produce starter-worthy fantasy results - not to mention his established rapport with WR1 Roy E. Williams from their time in D-town.

 

Michael Vick has been given a 2nd chance by the Eagles, and we all know how injury-prone Donovan McNabb has been throughout his career.  If Vick still has the wheels that earned him a $130 million contract (that he pissed away so foolishly), he could come in and dole out some serious damage to your opponents. 
Tyler Thigpen came in to spell Damon Huard (and the ineffective Brodie Croyle) for the Chiefs and put up some incredible fantasy numbers, but your league would have to afford you plenty of extra roster spots to even consider this as a play.

 

Jeff Garcia is not really a handcuff, because JaMarcus is a QB3, but why not blow a late rounder grabbing Garcia in hopes that he pries the starting gig from Russell?  He put some solid backup QB numbers in his 11 starts on Tampa Bay in '08. 

 

Finally, Vince Young is a guy that, if given the opportunity, can help your fantasy team.  He should be drafted ahead of Kerry Collins, and is not really a handcuff, but nonetheless a NFL backup who could step in and produce.

 

It's impossible to tell you exactly where to take all these guys.  You have to use good judgment.  The take-away here is that handcuffing IS a good strategy when applied the right way.   There are always going to be the poachers in your league that are drafting everyone else's backups in hopes of getting lucky.  That is a terrible strategy, and those guys are passing on solid contributors just to play the bad guy.  Every league has them, and you shouldn't let them dictate your moves.  Be patient.

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