ADP = Average Draft Position (data sourced from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and fftoolbox.com)

QB

Matt Stafford - ADP 17th among QBs -Bet you didn't know that Stafford finished 15th overall in fantasy pts per game among QBs at 18.8 per? Once you can calm down from that mind bullet, I'll then lay you out w/ the following... The Lions offense was pretty bad in '09... and '08, and '07 (etc), and they are finally taking steps to correct the issue. First, they brought in OG Rob Sims from Seattle - and while it was not a package deal, they brought another Seattle-ian, Nate Burleson, back to the NFC North to help Mega-tron w/ his routine triple teams. Finally, they invested a high draft pick in a RB (I know, not a WR, shocking), Jahvid Best, who should help to balance the offense with Kevin Smith nursing constant injuries last season. I mean, look, Stafford was a rookie, playing behind a banged up oline, w/ his all-world WR banged up for much of the season w/ knee issues, and his RB banged up as well. And he finished 15th in fantasy pts per game. You following my math here? He's being drafted as the 21st QB in recent ADP reports - that's too late. He's got a lot of upside as a backup QB. Watch out for that sophomore slump, though.

Carson Palmer - ADP - 14th among QBs  -I thought it was weird the Bengals drafted a receiving tight end (Jermaine Gresham) from Oklahoma, with a first rounder. Then they went out and signed Antonio Bryant to a lucrative contract. Well, they must have been scared stiff at Bryant and his wobbly knee, so they nose-dove off a cliff and took their chances with the enigmatic Terrell Owens. These aren't the actions of a team that is going to be pound the ball another 500+ times in 2010. I figured it all out this past weekend (Aug 1st)... Palmer suffered an elbow injury that ended his 2008 season just 4 games in. He was supposed to have surgery on the elbow, but said surgery would have kept him out of most, if not all of 2009. The Bengals invested $118 million in Palmer, and opted to bring him along slowly in 2009, turning to the running game, so as not to risk their prized possession. Well, mission accomplished, and now they are going to go back to what they did best earlier this decade - Pass. It's the only way to make sense of all of the movement to bolster up their pass catching corps. Plus, why would they have LJ go if they were gonna run the ball another 500+ times? Makes no sense. Here is the stat that says it all – From 2000 to 2008 7 of the 9 QBs that TO played with finished in the top 3 in QB scoring for fantasy. The other two that did not? Jeff Garcia in 2003 (finished 10th) and Tony Romo in 2008 (finished 5th). Palmer is a QB1 heading into 2010.

Jason Campbell –ADP 25^th QB - I like his WR personnel infinitely more on the Raiders than I ever did while he was on the ‘Skins.   The Raiders have been mired in QB hell for since I can remember – most recently with Ja-Stupid Russell, and previous to that it was Daunte Culpepper, Andrew Walters, and Kerry Collins.  Once upon a time, the Raiders were a fantasy passing juggernaut ala Rich Gannon.  I’m not prepared to say that Campbell can be a Gannon, but it at least goes to show you that the Raiders like to pass… if they can.  Al Davis may be senile, but he’s been amassing these talented down-field threats (Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, and Chaz Schilens) for some time now, and Campbell has got a gun.   He is used to having offensive scheme changes thrown at him, so he should adapt quickly in Raiderland, and wouldn’t be a bad backup QB with upside.

PS - TE Zach Miller is a stud, and Campbell will take advantage of that.

David Garrard – ADP 27^th QB - He is completely off of fantasy radars in 2010 because of a pretty terrible 2009.  What no one realizes is that he was running for his life all season due to having two rookie offensive tackles in Monroe and Britton.  An off-season spent polishing up their pass-blocking will translate to more time for Garrard.   The Jags are officially in youth-movement-mode at WR - Mike Sims-Walker emerged as a solid target last season, and another Mike – Thomas – appears to have some potential.  Also, at this time last year, there was a lot of chatter about  former 2005 draft bust, Troy Williamson, being a deep sleeper.  However, he went down for the season w/ a torn up shoulder.  Williamson is fully healed, and having the same solid off-season.  I’ve seen him mentioned on some sleeper boards, so who knows.  I’m not ready to feature him there yet, but he could be a late summer addition.  

RBs

Ladainian Tomlinson - ADP 38th among RBs - LT *could* be an intriguing pick in 2010. The numbers certainly don't lie - his YPC has been plummeting for 4 seasons (really only the last two, but has decreased in each of the last 4), but running behind that offensive line in NY seems to do wonders for RBs. And I'm talking ALL RBs (even that little white dude, Danny Woodhead - standing at 5'7" and 195 lbs averaged 4.3 YPC!) Shonn Green,TJ & Leon Washington combined for 512 carries in 2009. Shonn Greene had 109 of those carries, and Leon Washington and TJ combined for the other 403 carries. Let's assume 200 of those go directly to Greene (309 total carries for 2010), that still leaves 203 carries for LT. And when you factor in that Greene litereally cannot catch, it is fair to assume that LT is in store for about 250 touches in 2010 making him an excellent sleeper candidate.

CJ Spiller - ADP 26th among RBs  - Fans of this Clemson Tiger alum might not have to wait as long as it was originally thought to see him shine in the NFL as both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch have gone down with pre-season injuries. Neither are threatening their seasons, but Spiller is being given a giant window of opportunity, and should establish himself as the starter for week one. You can still expect a RBBC that involves Fred Jackson, but 200 carries and around 50 receptions is not out of the question for Spiller. It’ll be not 8, but 9 in the box, as long as Fitz and Edwards are around, so Spiller may not be able to pull the 5.9 YPC average he maintained while in college. Size is a concern (5’11” and only 196 lbs), but then tell that Chris Johnson (5’ 11” and 191 lbs ) owners the last two seasons. At the end of the day, the most Spiller touched the ball in college was 252 times in his senior year, so durability remains a concern.

Michael Bush - ADP 38th among RBs - It's only a matter of time before Michael Bush pulls a Michael Turner and lands in an organization that is willing to utilize him like he should be. Will it happen in Oakland this season? Darren McFadden and his inflated draft status and contract seem to have the final say on that. Bush is clearly the more impressive runner (4.6 YPA vs. McFadden's 3.8 over their careers), but because he was a 4th round draft pick (2007) to McFadden's 4th overall draft pick (2008), the Raiders are determined to make it work - or that is the only reasoning I can come up with. Bush only dropped to the 4th round in 2007 because of a broken leg (tibia) suffered during the first game of his senior season at University of Louisville. He was widely projected to be a top ten overall pick before then. He seems to have healed nicely. The only sliver of hope for Bush is that Cable pulls his head out of his ass when the Raiders have a strong start with Jason Campbell under center. That's less a compliment to Jason Campbell, and more a rip on how poor the QB situation has been in Oakland since Rich Gannon retired. When given the chance, Bush is hugely fantasy relevant - in his 9 career games in which he has had at least 12 touches, Bush is averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game. Ricky Williams was 7th in RB scoring in 2009 with 13.5 fantasy PPG.

Clinton Portis - ADP 40th+ among RB - I have been ignoring Portis all summer long. I just finished up some research on him, and I went from shock to humbled quickly. I was shocked at all of the positive things being written about his chances this season - I think I read the infamous tagline "Portis showed up to camp in the best shape of his career" lines at least 12 times. I was mostly just scoffing and writing these lamebo comments off. Then I became humbled, because it all started to make sense, when it should have been obvious the entire time - hey, I may have a genius fantasy mind, but I didn't claim to be on fire at all times. Shanahan shipped Portis off to the Beltway in the first place and is now head coach in DC. Portis has been playing with a slew of weak QBs since he arrived in DC 6 seasons ago, and now he's got a stud in Donovan McNabb. That's motivation. But if that's not enough, ruminate on this... rather large portions of the 8 year $50 million contract that he signed in 2004 are coming up, including $7+ mill this season, $8+ mill in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Now, he has no shot in hell of seeing out the rest of this contract, but maybe this and next season is possible? Here's another nugget I thought of, how much strife was there between Jim Zorn and Portis over the last two seasons? A shitload. But let's come back down off our high and settle on this, Portis, though 29 years old, has the mileage of a 32 year old with his 2100+ carries. Is he good for another 300+ carries? No. Not with Willie Parker and Larry Johnson on the depth chart. But these days, he doesn't need 300+ carries to make him a solid RB2 for a fantasy squad. Give him 275 or so carries and 20-30 recepts (McNabb loves to dump that ball), and he can probably finish just outside the top 10 again. There are more exciting picks, yeah, but Portis is healthy and will bounce back in 2010.

Arian Foster - ADP 32nd among RBs - With Ben Tate down to a season ender, Foster is now the undisputed 1st and 2nd down RB in Houston. Foster finished strong the last two games in 2009 with 39 carries 216 yards 5.53 YPC 3 TD and a 21.2 fantasy average.  I'm including him on this list for one reason; if Slaton continues to fumble the ball, Foster could be in for 300+ carries.  Slaton would still be the 3rd down guy, but there are only about 7-8 RBs who get 275+ carries, making Foster's deep round potential intriguing.

Justin Forsett – ADP 26th RB -  Here is another guy that is consistently landing on industry sleeper reports.  On the one hand, it was widely reported that his running style was not such a great fit for Pete Carroll’s offensive scheme, but then they clipped Lendale White this past spring, and didn’t go out and sign anyone else.  Word has it that Forsett’s ethic and skills have been enough to convince Carroll that between he, Leon Washington, and Julius Jones, that the ‘hawks are set at RB.   Real quick – Julius Jones is terrible, and Leon Washington suffered a nasty leg break;  Forsett is the best runner, and if he’s given a shot at the majority of the snaps, he will reward his owners in 2010. Check out his stats in weeks 10, 11, 12, 16, and 17.  Yowza, those are some pretty “per touch” numbers.   He’s a beast.

WRs

Terrell Owens - ADP - 32nd among WRs TO is now a Bengal, and just skyrocketed about 40 places up my stack rankings. At 36 years old, he really hasn't lost much of a step. There is not another physical specimen like him in the league, and with Carson Palmer chuckin' him the ball, the only thing to worry about is how many passing attempts there are in Cinci. Last year, they only attempted 477 passes. A lot of that had to do w/ the emergence of Cedric Benson, but Marvin Lewis also sought to keep Palmer’s attempts low as he was coming back MUCH earlier than anticipated from the elbow injury that ended Carson’s 2008 in week 5. Last year was the first time since 1999 that T Owens went four games without scoring a TD and we can comfortably blame that stat on the poor QB play of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. The Bengals are going to pass more in 2010, how else to explain pouring millions of dollars on Bryant and TO, and a 1st round draft pick on pass catching TE Jermaine Gresham?

Devin Aromashodu – ADP 32^nd WR - I was so bummed to see his name on so many sleeper lists – but it shouldn’t have come as a shock.  This guy was on fire the last month of the season putting up as many fantasy points as any fantasy wide out during that stretch.   This piece is friggin’ hilarious and sums it all up very nicely.  Cutler LOVES this guy.  And Martz will call mostly passing plays in 2010. 

Malcom Floyd - ADP 29th among WR -  He's showing up on a lot of sleeper reports, and I suppose, based on our ranking that I'm buying into it. I wasn't impressed with him numbers once Chambers was dumped mid-way thru 2009, but on the other hand, how valuable is the 3rd target on the Chargers? And really 4th if you include LT and that little midget Darren Sproles? If VJ ends up being traded, and the 6'5" Floyd inherits the WR1 honors, he could go bat shit. He cranked 140 yards in week 17 when VJ rested up for the playoffs. And he finished 4th in the league w/ 17.2 yards per catch. For such a big guy, his TD count was way light, but I suppose Phillip Rivers doesn't need to check down to his 3rd option too often in the red-zone with Gates and VJ on staff. Vincent Jackson will be traded, and if he's not, he will sit out 2009. AJ Smith and VJ have crossed that line as of late August. This ranking reflects that happening. If VJ happens to decide to comeback when he is eligible after week 4, we will be bumping Floyd down.

Mike Wallace - ADP 30-32nd among WR - ***Beast Alert*** He'll be on my squad this season. I'm keeping my chatter low on him, and just treating the FFA fans who actually read my site and don't just hang out on facebook. I've been talking up Hakeem Nicks till I'm blue in the face (cuz I know he's gonna roll), but secretly, I think Mike Wallace has the potential to just go off. Wallace was targeted 5 or less times in all but 4 games in 2009 yet still finished 29th among WRs in fantasy points. His high targets in a game was 8. He will have at least 8 games 8+ targets this year as he slides into the starting WR gig vacated by Santonio Holmes. It gets better, in Wallace's last 3 games last season he went for 226 yards and 3 TDs for a 13.53 fantasy PPG average. This was all on a total of 13 targets over those last 3 games! He averaged 19.4 YPCatch to lead the NFL in 2009... As a rookie! Boyyoyoyoyoyoying. As an fyi - my two other major WR sleepers - Nicks and Massaquoi - both finished in the top 7 in YPC among WRs. Time to get way revved up about this guy. As big of a dickhead as Ben Roethlisberger is, he can make a WR super valuable in fantasy football. Lock this guy down. I'm seeing him go as the 30th WR off of boards. Don't wait around that long - or you will lose him. Especially if your draft is held after the pre-season.

Johnny Knox - ADP 34th among WR  - Johnny Knox is officially the #1 target for the Bears in training camp and the pre-season. His speed, disciplined route running, and great hands fit like a glove into Mike Martz's offensive scheme. In the last three years there have been 9 young receivers who went from not being in the top 50 one season to being in the top 20 the next season, and my money is on Knox to be the 10th in four seasons.

Mohamed Massaquoi - ADP 52nd among WR - He is being overlooked because everyone has it in their heads that the Browns passing game is hapless. While that may still be true for 2010, I promise you that this kid is a diamond in the rough. He’s got proto-typical size (6’2 and 205) and despite not testing out well in the 40 yard dash (4.66 at the combine), he showed some game-breaking ability in the 2009 season averaging 18.4 YPC – which trailed only Santonio Holmes and DeSean Jackson. He had a couple of strong fantasy outings last season, but suffered along w/ the rest of the pass catchers in Cleveland from Dexy Anderson and Brady Quinn’s ineptitude. I would have no problem making Mohamed my WR3, but I won’t have to spend that much to get him. Not even close according to the mocks! Delhomme turned Steve Smith into an All-star, and while his skill set has eroded, anything is an improvement over last year’s QB debacle.

Jacoby Jones – ADP 60^th WR!!  He’s got the talent – but has thus far struggled with maturity.  It appears he’s finally getting’ it.  Pistol was all over the Jacoby sleeper factor – check it.

Hakeem Nicks – ADP 22^nd WR – I am listing him as a sleeper only because I think he can finish in the top ten and in mocks, he is going after guys he absolutely shouldn’t be going after.  Eli Manning is hitting the prime of his career, and everyone in the Giant organization knows what a special talent Nicks has already developed into.  He averaged 16.5 YPC (t-6^th in the league) in '09 and started the year injured.  He’s got enough speed to break away, but it’s his size that had most to do with that impressive YPC average.  The Giant rushing attack is now an embarrassment and Nicks will be Eli’s #1 target in 2010. 

Julian Edelman – ADP 37-40^th WR – ACL surgeries are a bitch to come back from.  Stick a fork in Welker.  His game is built purely on speed and quickness, and w/o it, he’s not a professional football player.  I know, I know, harsh words.  I have much love for Welker, but it is what it is (can’t believe I just used that phrase).  Bottom line, Edelman is going to be there to reap the benefits of being a Tom Brady WR.   80-90 catches for 940-950 yards and 7 or so TDs makes this guy a bargain on draft day. 

Jabar Gaffney - ADP 52- 65 among WRs - I’m seeing his name on a number of sleeper reports this summer, and I'm officially ready to bite, because of what I'm seeing in the pre-season. Here is the deal - with Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler out of Denver, there are roughly 204 targets to go around in 2010. Who is gonna step up and grab their share of that? My money is on Gaffney. He had a strong finish to the 2009 season; week 16 he caught 2 TDs, and week 17 he went for 200+ yards vs. the Chiefs – and these were two must-win games. He was 2nd in receiving for the Broncos in 2009 catching over 50 balls for 732 yards on the season on only 87 targets - with just 70 of the 204 targets left behind by Marshall and Scheffler, Gaffney could be a top 15-20 WR with ease - and he's currently being drafted 52-65 on ADPs among WRs. Verdict: He has the height and size for an NFL wideout (6'2" and 200 lbs), but without a fantasy relevant season to his credit (and he's caught footballs from Tom Brady for three seasons), don't get too carried away. His first 4 years in the NFL were catching passes from David Carr, who managed to stunt Andre Johnson's growth significantly, and then he spent 3 seasons on NE, two of which he was buried behind Moss and Welker. I would be happy to land this guy as my back WR in 2010.

Chaz Schilens -    ADP 60^th + WR – NOT - i give up on this guy.  He is more injury-prone than Elijah Price.