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over 2 years ago

Critical Fantasy Stats

07.06.09

2009 Raiders Archive (published July 2009)

 

Our Favorite Owner

 

This list of people should give you a good idea of how Al Davis makes us feel…

-Joe The Plumber
-Paris Hilton
-Sarah Palin
-Pauly Shore

We can’t even imagine how Raider fans cope.
 
Tom Cable was the offensive line coach in ’08 for the Raiders before taking over for Lane Kiffin.  Al Davis, who seems convinced that the head coaching slot means nothing to franchise success (see Lane Kiffin, Art Schell, Norv Turner, and Bill Callahan) went ahead and left him in position figuring things can’t get worse.   He’s probably right, and Cable appears to actually hold some promise.   He was the offensive line coach in 2007 and part of 2008 (before being promoted) and the only thing this Raiders team has been doing right the last two seasons is rushing the football ranking 10th (2008) and 6th (2007) overall.  Furthermore, based on the some of the movement in and out of the organization, the Raiders may be able to gain some traction for future success.

 

Air

In stark contrast to their rushing game, the Raiders have finished 32nd (’08) and 31st (’07) the last two seasons passing the football.  They bottomed out in 2008 with an anemic 148.1 YPG and 13 TDs.  They have only had two 300 hundred yard passing games in the last three years.  How could they have, though?

    •Andrew Walter
    •Aaron Brooks
    •Luke McCown
    •Daunte Culpepper
    •Marques Tuiasosopo

The above list represents all signal callers under center (besides JaMarcus Russell) since the 2006 season began.   If you can find a more anemic list of signal callers over the last three years, shoot us an email at stegman@FFArmory.com.

JaMarcus did show some signs of life toward the tail end of last season  in three games vs. solid pass defenses throwing for 208.7 YPG and two TD per  over his last three games going against three strong pass defenses (Tampa -  4th ,  New England - 11th,  and Houston - 17th ranked pass defenses).

It’s hard to  hold JaMarcus even a little responsible for the team’s passing woes given that it was his first full year under center, and moreover that the Raiders’ WR corps are the dead worst in the league. 

When we hear the name Johnnie Lee Higgins we think of country music.  Not sure why.  We were shocked to find out that Higgins is a black dude.  His claim to fame is leading all Oakland WRs in yards (366) and receptions (22) in 2008.  No, there are no typos in the previous sentence.   Between he and rookie Darius Heyward-Bey, the Raiders have speed to run under Russell’s cannon arm.  While Al Davis hasn’t the slightest clue how to build an organization as he gets on in years, it will be interesting to see how these young burners develop alongside the highly touted weapons in McFadden and Russell.  

 

QB

JaMarcus Russell – He is coming into his third season (2nd as a starter) and while he will continue to struggle, he does actually hold some promise for the future from a fantasy perspective.  He finished a frustrating 2008 season strong throwing for 208.7 YPG and two TD per over his last three games going against three strong pass defenses (Tampa -  4th,  New England - 11th,  and Houston - 17th ranked pass defenses).  He is far down our list at this point, but that could change if there is a black hole and it sucks up about 30 other QBs. 

Jeff Garcia – He is 39-years old and hasn’t been fantasy relevant in years.  He is one of the most solid guys in the league, but that won’t do your squad much.  The aerial situation in Oakland is not as bad as last years numbers might suggest.  Chaz Schilens has a lot of promise, Lee-Higgens is average, but they do have a talented pass-catching TE in Zach Miller.  We have Chaz Schilens as a sleeper, but only if Garcia is the QB.  He is not worth playing with Russell under center.

 

Ground

Head Coach Tom Cable has had success running offenses and coaching lines in the past.  When he took over the offensive line coach job in 2007 the Raiders were coming off the 2006 season where they ranked 29th  in rushing yards ( 94.9 YPG), averaged 3.9 YPC (T-18th) ,  and ranked dead last in rushing TDs (5 total).   His offensive line played a big part in turning things around the next season (with Justin Fargas, Lamont Jordan, and Dominic Rhodes no less) as they ended the year ranked  6th in rushing with 130.4 YPG, T-11th in rushing average (4.1 YPC),  and finished T-18th with 11 rushing TDs.  Of course the improvement might be a little misleading since the 2006 version of the Oakland Raiders featured Art Schell and his Bed & Breakfast managing offensive coordinator, Tom Walsh.  We didn’t think it was possible to rank 31st in passing offense with Randy Moss split out wide.  Great work, Al!

randy moss effect


The Raiders followed up their 2007 numbers last season with slightly lower rushing yardage totals,  however were able to increase their rushing YPA to 4.3 (T-10th).    Their only choice is to feature another robust ground game, while they work on bringing Russell and Heyward-Bey along, and they have the RBs to do it. McFadden is about to take the next step in his career and realize his top billing (4th overall) in last year’s draft.   Michael Bush matched McFadden’s YPG average of 4.4 and will see another 100-120 carries.

 

RB

Darren McFadden – 784 yards and four total TDs on 142 touches in ‘08 is fine.  He was battling a bit of turf toe, but those problems appear to be behind him and McFadden has been lighting up training camp with a steel toe in his shoe and is getting ready to stick it up some opposing defense’s anus.   The Raiders run the ball well, and McFadden is their most talented back.  They will probably employ a RBBC featuring McFadden at least half the time, and getting Michael Bush involved as much as possible.  Justin Fargas is beloved on this team for his blocking ability, so he will probably be worked into the mix, too.   McFadden is not being ranked as a starter this season, but he should be among the first backups aka RB3’s taken.  Pay close attention to the Raiders’ camp and pre-season, as things change with the direction of the wind in that organization.
 
Michael Bush
– The best RB named Bush in the league is on the Raiders not the Saints, and was drafted in the 4th round of the 2007 draft, not the 1st round of the 2006 draft.  You need to end up with Michael Bush if you select McFadden.  The Raiders will continue to focus on the run with Tom Cable calling the shots, and Justin Fargas is now officially their third option.

Justin Fargas – If Fargas is given the starting role in this RBBC no one is allowed to be shocked, but it’s just another bullet-point for whoever is writing the Raiders’ organizational biography.  The Raiders’ Al Davis is who you reference when you’re cracking jokes about your own poor hometown team ownership, no matter the sport.  That said, Fargas is an effective blocker in the backfield and has a 4.1 YPC career average in somewhat limited duty.  He’s a waiver-wire guy this season. 

 

WR

Darius Heyward-Bey - The Raiders’ selection of Heyward-Bey was a head-scratcher to anyone that focuses purely on college stats in assessing a draft pick.  He played in a system that did not feature the pass, and caught balls from a very average QB who will never see the light at the end of an NFL stadium tunnel.  We’re going with Jaws (Ron Jaworski) on this one in his assessment that Heyward-Bey’s #s don’t tell the tale.  This kid is a talent.  He’s raw, but with good coaching, he can be molded into a fantasy stud.  Keep expectations low this season, though.  He will get opportunities in ’09 given that Oakland’s top three pass-catchers in ’08 were a TE (Zach Miller), a RB (McFadden), and a guy named Johnnie Lee Higgins.


Chaz Schilens – Chaz is the sleeper, here.  He enters his second season, is huge at 6'-4", 225 pounds, has a 43-inch vertical, ran a 4.3 40-yd dash, and is a great run blocker downfield.  Now all Russell needs to do is learn how to complete passes to his WRs and things should work out ok.

Jabroni Walker – This guy has his cuyons firmly planted on Al Davis’s forehead.  The 2008 contract was one of the largest head-scratchers in recent NFL contract history given Walker’s myriad injury issues, but then to re-structure the deal (guaranteeing him ANOTHER  $4.6 million) instead of cutting him is nutty.  Raider fans should stage a revolution, and by the looks of the characters in that end zone in McAfee stadium, they have a nice foundation to do so.
 
Johnnie Lee Higgens – He led all WRs in Oakland last season with 364 yards and four TDs, so if we tell you not to both with any of these guys if Russell wins the starting job, you should understand.

 

TE

Zach Miller – He led all pass-catchers in Oakland (778 yards on 56 receptions and 86 targets) and enters his third year with a lot of potential to slide into a starting fantasy TE role.  His TDs (one) were low in ’08 as the Raiders finished with just 13 passing TDs total, but that should improve some as JaMarcus becomes more comfortable under center.  Combine that with how awful the WR corps depth chart is looking and it’s safe to assume increases across all stats that matter to fantasy.  Miller should be drafted as a top-eight fantasy TE in ’09.

 

 

Major Off-Season Moves

Incoming

Tom Cable takes over as head coach

FB Lorenzo Neal (free agent and will start)

QB Jeff Garcia (free agent)

QB Bruce Gradkowski has signed with the Raiders.

OT Eric Pears signed via free agency

OT Khalif Barnes (free agent and will start)

C Samson Satele (free agent and will start)

OT Marcus Johnson has been signed.

 

Outgoing

WR Ronald Curry has been cut and signed on with Detroit.

OT Kwame Harris was cut.

C Jake Grove has signed on with the Dolphins.

 

2009 Raiders Draft

oakland raiders

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