Coulda' fooled us, Herm.  The Chiefs were one of a few laughing stock franchises (Detroit, St. Louis, Oakland were among the others) last season that every fantasy 'baller would circle if they had a starting RB going up against them.  Herm Edwards did a bang up job since arriving in 2006 as he managed to halve his wins in consecutive years culminating in a two-win season in '08.  Karma paid a visit to Chief President Carl Peterson's chin as he had to cough up a 4^th round pick (that ended up being Leon Washington!) to the Jets for his obsession with procuring Edwards, and then got to watch as he slowly coached them into oblivion.  Three seasons and 33 losses later, they are both gone as owner Clark Hunt stepped up and cleaned house.  He made a solid choice in master architect Scott Pioli (Patriots VP of player personnel 2002-2008), who then brought in Todd Haley from Arizona.  The Chiefs are rebuilding, and you all should take inventory of which of your fantasy RBs get to play the Chiefs this season and start circling, cuz their defense is still going to be bad.  They will struggle early on offense as they move to implement a new scheme and QB, while losing their All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez, but there is some hope.

A New Decade

The player (and coaching) changes are extreme and long over-due.  The problem is that Pioli has thus far not done much to improve their near-term chances.  On defense, they signed dinosaur LB Zach Thomas, who actually still has gas left in the tank, and his leadership will be a sure asset to the locker-room.  Beyond that, character guys like Monty Beisel and Mike Vrabel (Vrabel via the Cassel trade and Beisel a free-agent) will be more valuable as wise old veterans vs. shutting down opponents.  Balancing out his geriatric free-agent signings on defense, Pioli also maintained an eye toward the future spending his first three draft picks LUS's DE Tyson Jackson (1^st), Purdue's DT Alex Magee (2^nd), and OSU's CB Donald Washington (3^rd).  This was a draft light on quality defensive lineman, and while they overpaid for Jackson, he has no behavioral issues and will be solid eventually.  Alex Magee is a genius - literally - and has a bright future post-football.  Until then, smart guys with skills tend to last in this league and it was another solid pick.  Washington won't be a major contributor unless there is injury.

On offense, things are clearer.  The passing game will struggle early, but there is upside if Cassel can pick things up within the first few games.  For targets, Dwayne Bowe is top target, Mark Bradley has un-realized potential thus far in his career, and Bobby Engram is old but still able.     

The running game experienced a dramatic improvement from 2007 (31^st ranked at 3.3 YPC) to 2008 (2^nd ranked at 4.8 YPC) in the YPC category, but finished 16^th overall as they were passing from behind for most of the season.  The offensive line changed very little, with the only notable move being C Eric Ghiaciuc (from Cinci) replacing Rudy Niswanger in the starting line-up.  Haley's offense does not favor the run, but the O-line is solid, and there is potential for a LJ turn-around.

WR

Dwayne Bowe - Mr. Intangibles has a new QB, a new pass-happy head coach, and has improved his targets, receptions, yards, and TDs year over year.  Tony Gonzalez is gone, and this could mean more double teams as Mark Bradley or Bobby Engram lining up opposite of him won't do much to divert attention.  Larry Johnson should bounce back this season as this last year of his current contract is no longer guaranteed.  He has depth at the QB position (Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen) in case of injury.  He will be targeted much more this season, but Matt Cassel and Bowe's ability to beat double teams are the pivot points to his success.  We expect his numbers to remain flat.  

Mark Bradley - This 2^nd round injury-prone bust has potential, but has not proven much beyond that.  Haley has been singing his praises in training camp and is the probable #2 WR opposite Dwayne Bowe.  It is difficult for us to utter the words "sleeper" and "Mark Bradley" in the same sentence, unless the word "not" is included.  That said, he is playing in an offensive system that featured three 1,000 yard WRs in '08 and KC's defense will still continue to struggle, so there will be no shortage on passing attempts.  He's got talent, it's just unrealized.  Take a chance on him as a WR5 in your draft.

RB

Larry Johnson - He has a penchant for assaulting women with spit, his hands, and even is on record for brandishing a gun at one.  What a gem.  He hasn't seemed to care much about the Chiefs franchise or football since signing his inflated contract before the '07 season.  That said, the contract he signed that was supposed to be guaranteed is no more because of the aforementioned assault charges and a behavior clause that kicks in.  So look for him to bounce back this season as he realizes that he is an assault charge away from being cut by the Chiefs and by that time he will be 30 with a decent amount of mileage.  Big contracts aren't handed out too regularly to folks with that pedigree.  LJ is a fringe starter in '09 depending on how many teams are in your league.

Jamaal Charles - He runs a 4.2 second 40-yard dash.  He is credited with having excellent patience and an ability to explode if/when a seam develops.  It is unclear whether he is capable of handling a full load in the NFL but did carry the ball 258 times in his final year as a Texas Longhorn.  He had a nice YPC average (5.3) in very limited duty in '08.  He is a required handcuff to Johnson that can be had in the later rounds of your draft.

2009 Fantasy Outlook

We've covered most everything above and below.  In a nutshell, expect this team to struggle.  They have the most difficult schedule in the league based upon our Strength of Schedule analysis (see below).  Matt Cassel is a highly over-rated (and unproven) as far as the NFL and fantasy go, but owner Carl Peterson just rewarded him with a massive contract extension, and while Peterson has made some bonehead moves in his day, GM Scott Pioli knows his stuff and this move would not have been made without his advice and urging, so we are less down on Cassel than we were before this big deal went down (in July 2009).

QB

Matt Cassel - How no one understands that this guy's success had everything to do with the New England system and its two all-pro WRs (Wes Welker and Randy Moss) is beyond us.  He will be in a new system, with unfamiliar offensive weapons, and will struggle.  He led all QBs in # of sacks in '08, and this was behind one of the better offensive lines in a system that he studied for three seasons prior to stepping in for the injured Brady.  The most dependable target (Gonzo) is gone.  He was just rewarded with an enormous contract extension ($63 million over six years with $28 million guaranteed!), so the Chiefs brass has obviously liked what they've seen this summer.  We have him ranked as a fantasy backup this season.  Let's see if Haley can work some magic with this one.

Tyler Thigpen - He posted good fantasy numbers in 14 games that amount to his first real action in the NFL.  The offense he ran was something out of the NCAA ranks and similar to what he ran in college - heavy on passing and short, quick routes.  He struggled mightily with accuracy, but that's to be expected with his lack of experience.  Scott Pioli and Todd Haley weren't prepared to go to battle with him and made their first order of business obtaining Matt Cassel via trade.  He is the only backup NFL QB that we are advocating drafting as a handcuff to a backup fantasy QB.

TE

Brad Cottam - Haley doesn't feature the TE in his offense and this guy is more of a blocker.  He is not draftable.

Major Off-Season Moves

2009 Kansas Chiefs Draft